Waymo Has Started Mapping SFO, But There’s a Catch
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, Waymo began mapping SFO with a catch, the California DMV granted Waymo permission to expand fully autonomous operations in Silicon Valley down towards San Jose and they have also started testing in Miami.
As we discussed on this week’s episode of Autonomy Markets and detailed in this week’s newsletter, Waymo is the clear leader in the robotaxi market. With such a large market lead, a great deal of responsibility comes with it and Waymo is managing it flawlessly.
They are doing things the right way and keeping the public informed as they scale operations. When a Waymo vehicle avoids a potentially deadly crash, they often share the video on X. They don’t have to, but by doing so, Waymo is building trust with the public, regulators and elected officials one view at a time.
We are now reaching a point where the Waymo Driver is a far superior driver than a human. We have emotions, we get distracted easily and many of us are glued to our phones. In fact, the average American checks their phone 205 times a day, and 43% consider themselves addicted.
It gets worse: 27% of Americans admit to using or looking at their phone while driving. Over the coming years, these numbers are only going to increase, as we are a highly distracted society, and unfortunately there’s no turning back.
Despite improvements in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), human drivers remain the weakest link. We get bored and lose focus easily. We do not concentrate on the road when we are supposed to be paying attention. The smartphone made us this way and we are not going back.
In the Driving the Future episode of X: The Moonshot Factory podcast, Astro Teller explained what happened when Google gave ADAS-equipped cars to employees. They did not pay attention to the road when the system was engaged.
The risk became so high that Google eventually stopped giving Googlers cars to test and ended the program entirely. Partly based on this experience and dataset, Google pivoted their approach towards full autonomy.
Since then the Google Self-Driving Car Project has evolved into Waymo, the world’s most successful autonomous driving company. Waymo vehicles do not get distracted, humans do and we will only continue to be more distracted as technology becomes more immersive. The future of driving is riding in a fully autonomous vehicle.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Waymo Has Begun Mapping SFO, But There’s a Catch
It’s official, Waymo has started mapping San Francisco International Airport (SFO). On March 14th, the San Francisco Airport Commission granted Waymo permission to map the airport (with human drivers) for a period of 30 days, with the commission having the option to extend it for an additional 30 days.
While this is a positive step forward for both Waymo and the Bay Area’s economy, a major political fight is brewing, as Waymo’s current SFO permit includes the following language:
The permit shall prohibit the movement of commercial goods by use of an autonomous vehicle on airport property reads the language governing Waymo’s use of the airport, according to a copy viewed by Mission Local. Commercial goods means any goods, wares, merchandise, or other tangible items requiring transportation for a fee or a commercial purpose. Commercial goods include any items for which a motor carrier permit is required.
– Waymo SFO Mapping Permit (Source: Mission Local)
When Waymo applies for a ground transportation operating permit (this permit would allow Waymo to conduct commercial service at SFO), a political battle is going to emerge. A battle between special interests who want to ban autonomous vehicles in California for their own self interests and an industry that wants to create jobs and revitalize the San Francisco Bay Area’s economy.
When Waymo is able to operate at SFO, the company will create hundreds of new high-paying jobs and have an $88 million dollar economic impact on the region’s economy. As Waymo’s operations grow and eventually rival those of Uber and Lyft, that impact could soar to over $603 million.
The potential economic impact is so significant that Mayor Lurie of San Francisco in a statement to NBC Bay Area, emphasized the economic opportunity Waymo brings to the Bay Area.
By working to expand transportation options to and from SFO, we’re continuing to make it easier for tourists and business travelers to experience our city, strengthen our economy, and welcome the world back to San Francisco. This agreement is another example of how San Francisco is driving innovation while supporting our economic recovery.
– San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie (March 17, 2025)
In order for Waymo to deliver it’s full economic potential to the San Francisco Bay Area, it must secure a ground transportation operating permit from the airport commission. How will the airport commission rule on the matter?
Will the commission turn a blind eye to the economic opportunity and side with the wants of special interests? Or will they do the right thing by helping the Bay Area’s economy grow? Will Mayor Lurie of San Francisco put the economy first? Or will he put special interests wants that are not based in fact first?
The demand for Waymo service to and from SFO already exists. In December 2024 alone, there were approximately 13,366 searches for “SFO” on the Waymo app. Additionally, 718 individuals installed the app while physically at SFO according to Waymo’s 2025 Tourism Impact report.
With millions of individuals suffering under the burden of a high interest rate environment, corporations cutting back on travel and families canceling their summer vacation plans due to economic stress, it is more important than ever for the San Francisco Airport Commission to prioritize the region’s economy over the demands of special interests.
A strong Bay Area economy is good for everyone. A weak economy hurts everyone. As Clinton 92’ strategist, James Carville famously said: “it’s the economy stupid”. Mr. Carville with his relentless focus on the struggling U.S. economy, propelled Bill Clinton to The White House defeating incumbent George H.W. Bush.
Waymo, SFO is your Clinton 92’ moment. The time to seize it is now.
Our take: It’s still the economy that matters. Voters care about the economy and the vote with their wallets. Waymo is an economic growth engine that creates jobs and supports the local economy.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
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Waymo is Expanding Down to San Jose
This week, the California DMV granted Waymo permission to further expand fully autonomous operations south towards San Jose. It is only a matter of time before you never have to drive or order an Uber or Lyft when visiting San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
Soon, you’ll be able to fly into SFO or San Jose, hop in a Waymo, and head to Half Moon Bay for a round of golf overlooking the Pacific Ocean, followed by drinks and dinner in the city. Two destinations, two separate expenditures, all contributing to the local economy and without driving or Ubering required.
Waymo isn’t just transforming transportation, it’s changing local economies. No longer confined to one area, economic activity can now spread seamlessly across regions where Waymo operates. Waymo is the future of tourism and an economic growth.
As Waymo continues to expand its footprint, so does its ability to drive economic growth. It’s only a matter of time before the resistance that Waymo has faced in certain cities, municipalities, and airports begins to fade, as elected officials increasingly embrace the clear economic benefits of Waymo.
Our take: Waymo is an economic growth engine and it’s time for the company to tell that story to the world.
Piquing Our Interest
Waymo Teen Accounts Coming Soon A Waymo One user posted a screenshot on Reddit showing a Waymo teens account for riders ages 14 to 17. If Waymo does indeed launch teen accounts, teens would be able to ride solo in Waymo vehicles with a parent or guardian’s permission.
Waymo Has Starting Testing in Miami As Waymo prepares to launch commercial service in 2026, the company has begun testing vehicles in the Magic City.
Waymo Plays Ball! Branded Arizona Diamondbacks Waymo vehicles have started starting showing up in the Valley of the Sun just in time for opening day.
Uber is Branding Waymo as a Premium Service in Austin Uber is now branding Waymo as a “premium autonomous vehicle” when riders are matched with a Waymo in Austin. This is a good first step, but an autonomous vehicle tier is still needed.
Zoox is Preparing to Build an Autonomous Vehicle Depot in Austin Could we be getting closer to a Zoox commercial launch? Zoox has filed documents with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation indicating that the company plans to build an autonomous vehicle depot near the Austin-Bergstrom airport.
Lyft Embraces a Hybrid Network Strategy In a March 20th blog post, Jeremy Bird, EVP of Driver Experience highlighted Lyft’s hybrid strategy where both autonomous vehicles and drivers will operate on the network.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Is Waymo Heading to the UK?
On Wednesday, Ambassador Mandelson and Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology Kyle of the UK took a ride in a Waymo in San Francisco. Waymo re-posted the tweet and wrote; “Thanks for riding @UKinUSA & @peterkyle – we can’t wait to one day bring the magic of Waymo One to the UK!”
Our take: Reading the tea leaves, it appears that a Waymo expansion to the UK is coming in the future.
Applied Intuition Partners with TRATON GROUP
On Monday, Applied Intuition announced a strategic partnership with The TRATON GROUP that will enable full software-defined vehicle (SDV) capabilities across all of TRATON’s brands.
Our take: Applied Intuition is one of the most interesting companies in the world today.
Applied Intuition is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software suppliers category.
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Waymo’s Big Week and Elon Musk’s Promises
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s mapping expansion to San Francisco International Airport (SFO), their continued Bay Area expansion and Tesla’s ambitious plans for launching a FSD Unsupervised.
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A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this post has been published. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this post. The information contained in this post does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. The information in this on this site and in this post are being provided solely as general information.
