Waymo Launches on Uber in Austin
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 0.67%, Waymo launched exclusively on Uber in Austin, Bot Auto is preparing for commercial driver-out operations and Wayve expanded to Germany.
Despite a broader market sell-off driven by tariff uncertainty and escalating political tensions in Europe, the autonomy economy continues to chug ahead. Despite, geopolitical uncertainties, Wayve has expanded to Germany and opened a new development hub in the Stuttgart region of Germany.
This expansion will allow Wayve to test its autonomous driving stack on Germany’s high-speed Autobahns, dense urban environments, and across challenging winter road conditions. We have been very bullish on Wayve and we remain bullish. What Alex Kendall and the team at Wayve are building could usher in the next era of autonomy—licensing.
It is only a matter of time before Wayve announces an OEM licensing deal. Could it be with Porsche or Mercedes-Benz? Both are headquartered in Stuttgart and both need a new autonomous driving solution. Wayve could fill this void by offering a world-class autonomous driving platform to automakers in search of a competitive edge.
Sure, the Porsche purists might bristle at the idea of a 911 that can drive itself. But the broader public won’t. Sometimes you want to drive, other times you want to ride. This is the future and it’s coming faster than most realize. While we don’t expect Porsche’s iconic 911 to be first in line, it’s likely just a matter of time.
More realistically, Porsche’s initial focus will be on integrating autonomous driving into its Macan and Cayenne SUVs. It’s worth remembering the Cayenne effectively saved Porsche from financial ruin in the early-90’s. At the time, sales were plummeting and the company was hemorrhaging hundreds of millions of dollars a year. The Cayenne reversed that trajectory and ignited a sales increase.
Today, Porsche finds itself in a different but equally precarious position. Porsche vehicle sales are declining, 90+ day auto loan delinquencies are rising, and the U.S. is facing the risk of a recession. Porsche needs a new “Project Colorado.” But this time, instead of collaborating with VW, they should partner with Wayve and autonomously drive into the future.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Waymo Launches on Uber in Austin
This week in Austin, Waymo launched exclusively on Uber ahead of SXSW. Waymo vehicles will now be available 24/7 across a 37-square-mile service area. This launch marks the first time Waymo’s service is offered exclusively through the Uber app.
While we appreciate Waymo’s willingness to experiment with new models in new cities, we have concerns about the overall rider experience. There is no dedicated Waymo or autonomous vehicle/robotaxi tier inside the Uber app. If you want to increase your chances of being matched (since you cannot select Waymo) with a Waymo, you have to go into settings and select “get more Waymo rides.”
This approach creates unnecessary friction. In our opinion, the current state of the partnership devalues the Waymo rider experience and risks diluting Waymo’s brand over time.
As it currently stands in Austin, you never know what vehicle you’ll get, you could end up in a dirty car with a chatty driver or a clean, quiet Waymo. Riders are essentially spinning the barrel and playing russian roulette every time they order a ride through the Uber app.
In San Francisco, Los Angeles, or Phoenix, riders can open the Waymo One app, order a ride, and know they are guaranteed to get a Waymo. This is product consistency, and product consistency builds a following, loyalty and value.
As Uber embarks on its autonomous vehicle strategy, they should work with Waymo to add a dedicated Waymo tier inside the Uber app for both Austin and Atlanta. This simple update would solve the product consistency issues that are currently plaguing both companies in Austin.
But the real question is; why wasn’t this done on day one? In our opinion, it’s common sense. In the Waymo subreddit, rider feedback is already pouring in, and it’s not positive. Riders want to be matched exclusively with Waymo vehicles, they do not want to cross their fingers and hope that they will be matched with a Waymo. They do not want to take chances, they simply want a Waymo, not a traditional rideshare vehicle.
The way this partnership is currently structured isn’t healthy for either brand. In fact, we can make a very strong argument that it is hindering both brands and validating investor concerns about Uber and their future in a market with autonomous vehicles.
Waymo has already proven it can scale a robotaxi service without Uber, as they are currently operating over 200,000 paid rides per week. If Uber does not address the product consistency issue, investors concerns about a “robotaxi overhang” will only accelerate, putting downward pressure on the company’s stock.
As the Uber/Waymo partnership expands, we will be closely monitoring public sentiment to see if the product inconstency concerns carry over to Atlanta. Furthermore, we will be watching to see if Uber joins Waymo in more markets, or if the partnership remains only in Austin and Atlanta for the time being.
We often go back and forth on Uber’s role in the future of autonomy. Based on this rollout in Austin, we are once again questioning that future. Uber needs to embrace a hybrid model of combining human drivers with autonomous vehicles, but it also has to fully commit to autonomy.
Uber can have its cake and eat it too, but only if it creates a dedicated Waymo/robotaxi tier inside the app. Otherwise, it risks potentially watching Waymo walk away. Consumers crave consistency, and today Uber isn’t offering it. Meanwhile, Waymo is already delivering that consistency in markets where it operates it’s Waymo One service independently.
Our take: Come on, Uber, don’t fear the driver.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
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Preparing for Commercial Driver-Out Operations
Bot Auto is preparing to launch fully autonomous commercial operations by the end of the year on the Houston-to-San Antonio lane. Over an initial four-month period—potentially longer, the company will operate a fleet of five to ten autonomous trucks, hauling paid commercial loads.
Upon completion of the pilot, Bot Auto plans to further refine its autonomous driving system, as it diligently prepares to scale into a full transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) business.
As the company scales, we will be watching closely to see if it forms Tier 1 partnerships and follows the lead of both Aurora and Kodiak by developing an automotive-grade hardware kit for its trucks.
If Bot Auto indeed goes down this path, the company would be able to scale their TaaS model without being beholden to OEMs. Autonomous driving kits offer flexibility and security by eliminating potential choke points that can arise with OEM partnerships.
These kits shift the power dynamic. With kits, OEMs no longer hold all the cards, they know need the autonomous driving technology companies, because if this model succeeds and scales, truck OEMs will be relegated to a Foxconn-like relationship with the autonomous trucking industry.
We are witnessing the dawn of a new era in trucking. The rules are changing. The power dynamics are shifting, and the industry is heading autonomously down the road. With the launch of fully autonomous commercial operations without an OEM, Bot Auto is validating that you do not truck OEM to build an autonomous trucking business on day one. You just need world-class engineers and an autonomous driving kit.
On day two, autonomous trucking companies may need the truck OEM, but the terms will no longer be dictated by them. The terms will be set by a market that’s evolving, and by the fact that OEMs are in the business of selling trucks, not dictating terms and trying to control the future of autonomous trucking.
Bot Auto’s fully autonomous pilot from Houston to San Antonio could usher in the next era in trucking.
Our take: Tier 1’s and upfitters will play a significant role in the future of future of autonomy. Let’s not forget, Waymo’s Jaguar I-PACE’s operate with autonomous driving kits. They are upfitted, not built on a factory line. If Waymo can scale to over 200,000 paid rides a week, why can’t Bot Auto scale a transportation-as-a-service business?
Bot Auto is currently ranked #3 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucks category.
Piquing Our Interest
Alphabet Remains Fully Committed to Waymo This week at an investor conference, Alphabet CFO, Anat Ashkenazi reiterated the company’s strong financial commitment to Waymo.
Wayve Expands to Germany Wayve has opened a development hub in the Stuttgart region of Germany. The hub will act as a base of operations for testing Wayve’s autonomous vehicles on high-speed Autobahns, in dense urban environments and on wintery roads.
Plus is Preparing for Commercial Operations Plus, a global autonomous trucking company is preparing to launch commercial operations by 2027 in Texas.
Didi’s Autonomous Driving Division is Raising Capital at a $5 Billion Valuation Investor enthusiasm for autonomous driving technology companies is heating up. Diddi is looking to turn that enthusiasm into a funding round which values the division at $5 billion.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Once Again, Waymo Saves a Life
Every day, it is becoming more and more increasingly clear that Waymo is a better driver than most human drivers. In this latest example, a human driver was barreling toward a Waymo at a high rate of speed in downtown LA while driving in the wrong lane. Instead of colliding head-on with the speeding vehicle, the Waymo simply moved aside and avoided a potentially horrific crash.
Our take: How many humans would react in the same manner so quickly? Unfortunately, a lot less than you might think. Waymo is making our roadways safer.
Waymo parent Alphabet is The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Hyundai’s IONIQ 5 is Becoming The Robotaxi of Choice
Another day, another robotaxi deal for Hyundai. This time, the company has partnered with Avride to jointly develop and operate autonomous vehicles. The first vehicles which are being manufactured at Hyundai’s Metaplant America factory in Georgia are scheduled to come online later this year on Uber in Dallas.
Our take: The deal with Avride signals the end of Motional and highlights the strength of the IONIQ 5 as a robotaxi platform. The question now becomes, who will Hyundai partner with next?
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of March 3, 2025, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 0.67%, the S&P 500 declined 3.10% and the NASDAQ 100 declined 3.27%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 3.77% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 3.94%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 1.65%
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Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
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