Waymo is Heading to Japan
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 2.24%, Waymo is heading to Japan, NHTSA proposes AV STEP and Lyft was added to The Road to Autonomy Index, replacing GM as part of the The Road to Autonomy Index December 2024 rebalance.
Waymo continues to be the clear leader in the development and commercialization of robotaxis. The company’s expansion to Japan is a major milestone for the entire autonomous vehicle industry.
As Waymo expands and scales commercial operations, the question of what are Alphabet’s long-term plans for Waymo only intensifies. Venture capitalist Reilly Brennan thinks there could be a Waymo spin-out in 2026 or 2027. But why should Alphabet spin-out Waymo? How would it benefit Alphabet shareholders?
One could make the argument that Waymo does not fit into Alphabet’s core businesses. One could also make the argument that a spin-out would unlock shareholder value. But if you really want to unlock shareholder value, wouldn’t a spin-out of YouTube at a $455 billion valuation unlock more value? (Netflix currently has a market cap of $388 billion.)
For the foreseeable future, we do not see a Waymo spin-out occurring. However, we see a scenario where Waymo becomes a self-sustaining business under the Alphabet umbrella.
Being part of Alphabet (outside of the capital) has a lot of strategic benefits for Waymo, including the way the market and public perceives the company. Alphabet gives Waymo credibility and durability. Both keys to success.
Lyft, which was once left for dead, is on the comeback trail and back in the news, delivering growth and a credible autonomous vehicle narrative. It all started with a new CEO, David Risher. Mr. Risher has been CEO for 8 months now. Next April, marks his one year anniversary as CEO of Lyft. Good times ahead.
On a side note, there is a Thank You, David Risher easter egg on Amazon.com. (Thank you Bert Kaufman for pointing this out to us!)
Next week is Christmas and the beginning of Hanukkah. To those who celebrate, we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Hanukkah.
Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we will have autonomy.
Lyft and Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
What’s Moving the Markets
Waymo is Heading to Japan
In a bullish signal to the market, Waymo announced on December 16th that they are hitting the road and heading to Japan. Beginning in early 2025, Waymo will begin manual driving in Tokyo as they adapt the Waymo Driver to a new driving environment (left-hand side of the road) and Japan’s customs and culture.
Taking a road trip is Waymo’s first step in preparation for launching a commercial service. When it comes online Tokyo will be Waymo’s first international city—a first of many. In our opinion, Tokyo was the right first international market for Waymo, as the Japanese Government has a favorable view on autonomous vehicles and they are putting policies in place to ensure that autonomy can scale in the country.
Japan is a country with an aging population (over 30% of the population is over 60 years old) that prefers to age in place. By 2065, one in 2.6 Japanese citizens will be 65 years old or older and one in 3.9 will be 75 years old and over.
With a population that is only projected to become older over time and a cultural desire to age in place, Japan is going to face a myriad of issues if the age trend lines hold. Today, the effects of an older population are showing up in growing labor shortages.
To solve for the labor shortage, Japan is turning to autonomy and automation. Today in Japan there are no longer a sufficient number of individuals to drive taxis, buses, trucks and forklifts.
Since 2019, the number of taxi drivers in Japan has declined by roughly 20%, as drivers age out of the profession and younger Japanese are disinterested in becoming taxi drivers. Autonomous vehicles solve the taxi driver shortage today and tomorrow. Autonomous vehicles ensure that Japan’s elderly population can age in place, while having access to safe and reliable transportation.
After Tokyo, could Waymo look to expand service to Yokohama, Kyoto and Osaka? Could Japan become the market where Waymo deploys the Zeekr vehicles in large quantities?
Anything is possible and we are looking forward to following Waymo’s Japan expansion.
Our take: If all goes according to plan, we expect to see Waymo commencing commercial service in late 2026/early 2027 in Japan.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Advocating For The Autonomy Economy | Sponsored
Automation and autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Council for Economic Resilience is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.
Get Engaged, Learn More visit CNFER.org
Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group that is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American people.
AV STEP: One Step Forward, One Step Backwards
In the waning days of the Biden Administration, NHTSA finally decided to release AV STEP (a voluntary program) proposed rulemaking for autonomous vehicles.
AV STEP is one step forward as it clears the way for the commercialization of autonomous vehicles without traditional controls (pedals and steering wheel), and it’s one step backwards as NHTSA would require extremely detailed data.
Data that includes the number of vehicles operated, vehicle identification numbers, vehicle miles traveled segmented by zip code and time of day on a quarterly basis. Unfortunately, this data can be weaponized under various scenarios and used to create misleading narratives as we have seen with California DMV and CPUC reporting data.
If there is a budget shortfall in Washington (happens all the time), it would be very easy for a lawmaker to suggest taxing the vehicle miles traveled on a progressive scale based on fleet size, zip code and time of day the autonomous vehicles are in operation. The data just became weaponized to the detriment of the American public.
Additionally, NHTSA has proposed making this data publicly available. Opening another can of worms as individuals and organizations with an agenda would be able to manipulate the data to fit a narrative that is both self-serving and destructive to the growth of the autonomous vehicle industry.
The autonomous vehicle industry in the United States is in its infant years. It has barely learned to walk, yet it is already saving lives every single day in America. Autonomous vehicles do not drink and drive (37 deaths per day), speed (34 deaths per day) or text and drive (9 deaths per day).
More importantly, autonomous vehicles solve one of the biggest problems in today’s society—distraction. Autonomous vehicles do not get distracted, they do not have feelings or cravings for alcohol. Heck, they do not even have boyfriends or girlfriends. They have no emotions, they are robots and they are safer than human drivers.
To truly reap the benefits of autonomous vehicles, we need to come together as a society and ask ourselves what we can do to help our fellow citizens? We can no longer ask ourselves, what do special interests want? We need to ask ourselves what does society want. Society wants safe roads and a prosperous economy.
Autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks will make our roads safer, collectively they will usher in the autonomy economy. When the autonomy economy arrives in earnest, the U.S. economy will thrive and prosper into the future.
Our take: Sometimes a good thing turns out to be a bad thing. We are taking a wait and see approach when it comes to AV STEP.
Piquing Our Interest
Privatization of Ports and the Post Office Would Allow Automation & Autonomy to Flourish That is the case that Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution laid out in a December 21st Barron’s Op-ed.
Tesla is in Talks with the City of Austin for a Robotaxi Deployment Tesla has held talks with the City of Austin about potentially deploying robotaxis on city streets. If and when Tesla deploys the Cybercab in Austin, they would be joining Waymo and Zoox. (Zoox is currently testing modified Toyota Highlanders in Austin)
Austin’s Emerging Robotaxi Economy Austin is emerging as one of the major hubs for autonomous vehicles. Waymo is currently ramping up service, Zoox is testing and before their unfortunate incident, Cruise operated a commercial robotaxi service in the city.
Pony AI’s Growing Robotaxi Fleet Next year, Pony AI is projecting to grow their robotaxi fleet in China from 250 vehicles to over 1,000. As part of the growth, Pony AI is aiming to lower production costs of their robotaxis to less than Rmb300,000 ($41,000).
Foxconn Has Interest in Nissan If Foxconn were to make an investment and/or acquire Nissan, it could potentially open the door for Foxconn/Nissan to become a contract manufacturer for robotaxis.
Samsung and Hyundai Motor are Exploring Autonomous Vehicle Chip Alliance Samsung and Hyundai Motor are exploring an autonomous vehicle chip alliance that would strengthen the South Korean automotive supply chain.
Kodiak Hits the Snow Kodiak used GenAI to train the Kodiak driver for snowy environments. Kodiak recently deployed a Ford F-150 powered by the Kodiak driver on snow covered roads in Northern Michigan.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Autonomous Vehicle > Plane > Autonomous Vehicle
Alex Kendall, Co-Founder & CEO of Wayve just completed what is soon to become commonplace. Mr. Kendall took an autonomous vehicle to Heathrow in London and was picked up at SFO in San Francisco by another autonomous vehicle.
What Mr. Kendall recently completed is the future.
Our take: Wayve is one of the most interesting companies in autonomy today. Their approach to developing an autonomous driving system is highly scalable and highly profitable.
Wayve is currently ranked #4 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Waymo’s Quick Response Avoids Potential Tragic Incident
To those who question the safety benefits of autonomous vehicles, watch this video. The Waymo vehicle successfully avoided an individual who fell off a scooter in the middle of traffic with moving vehicles. If the Waymo vehicle was a human driven vehicle, the individual on the scooter most likely would have ended up in the hospital with injuries.
Our take: Autonomy saves lives. Autonomy does not get distracted. Autonomy is good for society. The true benefits of autonomous vehicles have yet to be truly felt, but soon they will be, globally.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of December 16th, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 2.24%, the S&P 500 declined 1.99% and the NASDAQ 100 declined 2.25%. The Road to Autonomy Index underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.25% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.01%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 22.68%
Follow The Road to Autonomy Index on Apple Stocks | Google Finance
The Road to Autonomy Index Component Companies
For more information on The Road to Autonomy Index and to learn about licensing and marketing opportunities, please email hello@roadtoautonomy.com
Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
May Mobility: Scaling Autonomous Vehicles in Japan with NTT and Toyota
Edwin Olson, Co-Founder & CEO, May Mobility joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss May Mobility’s strategic expansion into Japan through partnerships with Toyota and NTT and their plans to launch with Lyft in Atlanta in 2025
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Tuesday, December 17, 2024
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Apple to Revive Robotaxi Ambitions? Waymo Expands to Japan, Uber’s Fleet Strategy
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Apple’s potential return to the robotaxi market through Foxconn. If Foxconn is successful in acquiring Nissan, it would create a path for Apple to re-enter the autonomous vehicle sector.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Saturday, December 21, 2024
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
Inclusion of a security within The Road to Autonomy Index® is not a recommendation by The Road to Autonomy Indices LLC to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.
