Waymo’s Big Week
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 0.50%, Waymo had a very big week, Tesla announced Unsupervised Full Self-Driving is coming in June and The Washington Post Editorial Board advocated for a national autonomous vehicle framework.
In a January 30th opinion piece, The Washington Post Editorial Board advocated for a national autonomous vehicle framework, citing data from Waymo that autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers.
Indeed they are as autonomous vehicles do not have emotions, do not get distracted, drunk or speed. They do not get stressed out about paying rent or mortgage on time, nor do they worry about how inflation is eating into their household budgets.
Autonomous vehicles simply care about one task—getting passengers to their destination safely. Play the music as loud as you want, sing your heart out—they won’t be distracted, but a human driver might be.
Distracted driving is a national epidemic, exacerbated by our growing addiction to phones and devices. No matter how much we as a society become addicted to screens, it has no impact on autonomous vehicles.
Autonomous vehicles do not stare at a screens all day. Nor do they try to figure out the truth behind DeepSeek day and night.
The Washington Post Editorial Board did a remarkable job of putting into context just how dangerous the roads of the United States have become.
In 2023, an estimated 40,990 people were killed in car crashes in the United States. That’s enough people to fill Washington’s Nationals Park. Picture a stadium full of cheering fans — and then all those seats empty, because each person has died horribly. This is in addition to the roughly 6 million nonfatal collisions on our roads, which injure almost 2 million people a year, more than the capacity of all the Major League Baseball stadiums in the country.
– The Washington Post Editorial Board, If Self-Driving Cars are Safer than the Alternative, What’s to Lose? Editorial, January 30, 2025
Opening Day for baseball is just seven weeks away. This summer, if you attend a game, take a moment to think about the fact that an entire stadium of fans (one that you are sitting in) perished in car crashes in a single year. Let that sink in. Reality is horrific, yet we often look the other way and carry on without a second thought.
The time to change that is now. Autonomous vehicles are here to improve our society and to ensure that the tragedy of car crashes becomes a relic of the past.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
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What’s Moving the Markets
Waymo’s Big Week
Waymo had a big week, with employees now able to take fully autonomous rides on LA freeways and around Atlanta. They also announced a new 10+ city road trip, beginning with San Diego and Las Vegas, and Waymo’s return to Washington, D.C.
With Waymo returning to Washington, D.C., all signs point to D.C. becoming one of Waymo’s next commercial markets. D.C.’s dense environment and high demand for Uber and Lyft makes it a perfect market for a robotaxi service.
The big unlock—freeways—has arrived in LA, where employees now have access. We expect public access by May, which should drive a surge in demand as drive times will be comparable to Uber and Lyft. After freeways, the next milestones in LA are curbside pickups at LAX, an expansion north of Sunset and eventually to the valley.
Once freeways and LAX are unlocked, Waymo is poised to capture significant market share from Uber and Lyft in the LA market. Product consistency will drive market share gains. When you get into a Waymo there are no surprises about the condition of the car or the driver. In LA, where everyone’s an aspiring actor, Waymo won’t pitch you on a script or the next greatest thing in film.
This consistency will fuel Waymo’s growth. If you fly from LA to Atlanta, the Waymo experience is going to be the same. The Uber and Lyft experience, not so much—advantage Waymo.
As Waymo embarks on its 10+ city road trip this year, we expect 2-3 new cities to be added, with Washington, D.C. likely being one of those cities. Could Waymo make a stop in Nashville as part of the road trip? With its growing population, strong economy, and favorable regulatory environment for autonomous vehicles, Nashville is well poised to become a Waymo city in the future.
Then there is Las Vegas. Will Waymo’s road trip eventually turn into a commercial deployment? Anything is possible and we will be watching the road trip and potential returns to Sin City for signs of a commercial deployment.
This week it became very evident that Waymo is firing on all cylinders. With Waymo being so far ahead of the competition, can anyone not named Tesla can catch up?
On Tuesday, Alphabet reports earnings. We will be listening in to hear if Mr. Sundar Pichai shares any updates on Waymo’s business as he historically has in the past.
Our take: Waymo is the undisputed leader in the development and commercialization of robotaxis—the world is their oyster.
Lyft, Tesla, Uber and Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
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On The Road to Unsupervised Autonomy
Tesla is on the road to unsupervised autonomy with Austin being the launch market, but will it come in June this year? If the service does launch in June, will there be restrictions around the ODD (operational design domain)? Will the Cybercab be able to go to the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport?
There are still a lot of questions remaining around the launch of unsupervised full self-driving, but when it happens it will be exciting. The launch will commemorate a major milestone in the history of autonomy, and it will further validate Elon Musk’s famous statement—”LiDAR is a crutch”.
If the timeline holds, next year Tesla owners with HW4 vehicles will be able to put their vehicles on the Tesla robotaxi network and “rent” them out when they are not using the vehicle. The most interesting aspect of this model is the potential economics.
If a consumer can “rent” their Tesla while they are not using it and it covers their monthly lease payment, insurance and charging, the vehicle will then pay for itself. If the economics get so good and a consumer is able to generate a profit every month, why would a consumer opt to buy/lease any other car as 99.9% of cars lose value?
The car would then become a revenue generating asset for the owner/lessee. If this were to happen, the car business would change forever. Every major automaker would be forced to once again follow Tesla’s lead.
First it was electric vehicles, then Autopilot/FSD, then it was NACS (North American Charging Standard) for electric vehicle charging and next could it be turning the car into a revenue generating asset?
Will the traditional automotive industry even grasp this future and its potential impact on their businesses? Will dealers and their lobbying organizations try and stand in the way as they have over dealer franchise laws? Or will automakers simply dismiss the model at first? If they do, they risk falling further behind Tesla.
If they fall too far behind, will they ever be able to catch up? That is for the consumer to decide. But, ultimately if the economics add up and consumers embrace this model, a seismic shift would occur changing the automotive industry forever.
Our take: Sometime over the next five years, Tesla will “crack” full self-driving and launch a robotaxi network that enables Tesla owners/lessees to “rent” out there Tesla’s. When this moment occurs, the traditional model of buying/leasing a vehicle will come to an end. Dealers, leasing companies and car companies will no longer hold the cards, the power will have shifted to the consumer, and that consumer will demand a vehicle that gives them the opportunity to generate income.
Tesla is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicles category.
Piquing Our Interest
Washington Post Editorial Board Advocates for Autonomous Vehicles In a January 30th opinion piece, The Washington Post Editorial Board advocated for a national autonomous vehicle framework as autonomous vehicles have proven to be safer than human drivers.
Incoming Winter Storm, No Problem for Waymo As the weather in San Francisco turns cold and rainy, Waymo vehicles are out on the roads safely driving passengers to and from their destinations, as human drivers are opting to stay home. They are even driving on the highways.
The Financial Times Asks: Would You Trust an Autonomous Vehicle? We know from experience once an individual rides in an autonomous vehicle, they trust it. Yet, The Financial Times cites an outdated AAA report claiming most U.S. drivers don’t. It’s time to shift the narrative on AV trust as misleading data and headlines will slow down the adoption of autonomy.
Autonomy Hype is Not Helping Mobileye Mobileye seems adrift, with its stock down 40% over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 returned 25%. 70% of Mobileye’s sales come from three customers, with Volkswagen likely being the largest, questions about Mobileye’s future in autonomy persist. Volkswagen isn’t known for its forward-thinking approach to autonomy, leaving risks and uncertainty ahead.
Tesla Unveils More Detailed Robot Cleaner Video As Tesla advances toward unsupervised autonomy and launching a robotaxi network, the company is building out the infrastructure to service Cybercabs. A robot cleaning vehicles is yet another example of Tesla’s focus on efficiency.
Waste Management Embraces Automation Waste Management is accelerating their implementation of automation as the company seeks to increase efficiencies. Are autonomous dump trucks next?
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Using Autonomy to Increase Efficiency
Tesla isn’t just a car or technology company—it’s an efficiency company. By leveraging autonomy and robotics, Tesla drives down costs and unlocks new efficiencies. The future it’s building today will soon be commonplace, as more and more companies will begin to integrate automation and autonomy into their operations in an effort to boost margins and efficiency.
Our take: A fully autonomous vehicle driving off the factory line to the dock is brilliant—another example of Tesla redefining efficiency.
Tesla is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Avride Deploys 100 Delivery Bots at The Ohio State University
Avride in partnership with Grubhub has deployed 100 autonomous delivery bots at The Ohio State University. College campuses are ideal for this tech—high demand (during the school season), semi-controlled environments. But what happens in the summer? Where will the bots go?
Our take: Will students be nice to the robots? Or will they end up in a frat house after a long night of Beirut or as some folks call it beer pong?
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of January 27th, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 0.50%, the S&P 500 declined 1.00% and the NASDAQ 100 declined 1.36%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.50% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 1.86%
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 4.48%
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Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
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