Is Tesla’s We Robot Event a Make or Break Moment?
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles
In 2026, Waymo Hyundai autonomous vehicles will be autonomously driving in cities around the United States as the name Motional becomes merely a footprint in history. Motional has only been a “company” for four years. It didn’t take long for Hyundai to potentially pull the plug and shift strategies by entering into a partnership with Waymo.
Does Motional survive? We do not think so, even though Hyundai told CNBC the Waymo partnership “doesn’t influence” Motional. PR statements do not influence us, as we are smart enough to read the tea leaves.
Reading the tea leaves has become sort of a pastime leading up to Tesla’s We Robot event on 10/10. Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla will introduce an FSD (Supervised) rideshare service. Other analysts believe Optimus will get a friend. Others believe that Tesla is going to announce FSD for Semi. What do you think Tesla will unveil? Let us know by replying to this email.
Next week we have GM’s investor day on 10/8 followed by Tesla’s We Robot event two days later, and we are still waiting for an October surprise.
On this week’s edition of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla’s We Robot event and what they expect to be announced, Waymo’s early rider launch in Austin and Zoox’s new Las Vegas partnership.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Is Tesla’s We Robot Event a Make or Break Moment?
Next Thursday, all eyes on autonomy turn to the famed Warner Bros. backlot in Burbank, California as Elon Musk prepares to unveil the Tesla robotaxi at an event dubbed We Robot. Investor hype for the event is sky-high and investors have been buying Tesla’s stock in anticipation of what the future might hold.
Since Mr. Musk first announced Tesla’s Robotaxi Day on April 5th, the stock has gained almost 50%. With investor exceptions sky-high, Barron’s Al Root sees the evening as a make or break moment for Tesla.
In an October 4th column, Mr. Root wrote the following:
Tesla was once the red-hot center of car innovation, but now it feels at risk of sinking into irrelevance as just another auto maker. Its coming Robotaxi Day may be Elon Musk’s last chance to convince investors that Tesla still has it.
– Al Root, Associate Editor, Barron’s
This comment reminds us of Apple under Steve Jobs when analysts and commentators would constantly question if Apple has lost its mojo. Apple under Mr. Jobs when he returned in 1997 never lost its mojo. Today, one rightfully questions the design and product choices that Apple has made over the last several years. Would Mr. Jobs have released the Vision Pro or the iPhone 16?
While that is debatable, one thing is for certain. If Elon Musk never invested in Tesla and took control of the company, we would not be writing this column now. Mr. Musk and the engineering teams at Tesla are constantly pushing the envelope of what is possible and reimagining what the future of mobility could and should look like today and tomorrow.
To truly understand where Tesla is going, you have to own the product and use the product on a daily basis. As analysts who cover the sector, we read a lot, meet a lot of people and get to experience new products and services on a regular basis.
While we have had multiple experiences with Tesla’s vehicles (thank you Tesla for the loaner cars over the years), we never lived with the product until now. We never put FSD to the test to see what it truly can and cannot do on a daily basis.
That has changed as we now use the product (Tesla Model 3 LR HW4) on a daily basis. By using the product on a daily basis, we are more convinced than ever that it is only a matter of time until Tesla cracks full self-driving. Tesla FSD 12.5.4.1 is a true remarkable feat of engineering.
To us, We Robot is not a make or break moment for Tesla. It’s merely the start of the next evolution of the company—autonomy.
We are looking forward to 10/10. We have partnered with Koop (our wonderful newsletter sponsor) to host a live stream event of Tesla’s We Robot event on Thursday, October 10th at 10pm EST on YouTube. Subscribe to be notified when the stream goes LIVE.
Our take: The future is very bright for Tesla. First, Tesla made electric vehicles mainstream, next Tesla is going to make personally owned autonomous vehicles mainstream.
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicle category.
Tesla is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Tesla FSD (Supervised) Rideshsare Service?
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is expecting Tesla to take a dual approach to a rideshare service.
It is our expectation that Tesla will offer a ‘dual’ approach with respect to autonomous ridesharing: (1) the fully autonomous app-based cybercab and (2) a ‘supervised’ autonomous/FSD rideshare service. We think the latter of these may get the most attention or have the greatest room to surprise investors, at least near term.
– Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley Analyst, October 2, 2024 Research Report
It is very possible that Tesla will indeed introduce a FSD Supervised rideshare service to compete with Uber. The biggest difference between Uber and the proposed Tesla service would be product consistency.
Use the Tesla service, get a Tesla. Use the Uber service, and get who knows what. But this is an easy fix for Uber, as we could envision a point in the future where Uber offers exclusive rides in certain brands of vehicles as a premium service.
10/10 is next week. We will learn a lot.
Our take: The battle of rideshare platforms could come down to Uber and Tesla, with Lyft looking from the outside in.
Tesla and Uber are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Way’mo Deals
First it was Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), then it was Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), followed by Zeekr (Geely) and now it’s Hyundai. On October 4th, Waymo announced a multi-year, strategic partnership with Hyundai for autonomous-ready redundant vehicles. The Waymo Hyundai autonomous vehicles should be available for paying passenger use in 2026.
Rumblings of a deal with Hyundai were first reported by Reuters on September 19th. Now roughly two weeks later, the deal is official.
Both Waymo and Hyundai needed the deal. Was this deal a marriage of convenience or was this truly a deal that both parties wanted? Because as of December 31st, JLR is no longer going to manufacture the iPACE and all signs point to Hyundai shutting down Motional. So in theory they both needed the deal.
Waymo did and still does have a deal with Zeekr for vehicles, but as we have repeatedly said, this was an unforced error on Waymo’s part. We have not seen any polling data that suggests Americans want to ride in a Chinese manufactured autonomous vehicle. In fact, we have seen the opposite. Waymo, if you have that data, please share it publicly.
On the September 22nd edition of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s potential pivot away from Zeekr to Hyundai.
Anyway Waymo tries to spin the Hyundai deal, it’s a pivot and the admission of an unforced error.
Our take: Waymo is the clear leader in the commercialization of robotaxis. As Waymo continues to scale, it no longer becomes about market share, it becomes about economics. When and how Waymo will achieve profitability is now the biggest question.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Piquing Our Interest
Getting Wall Street’s Attention Autonomous vehicles are once again getting Wall Street’s attention and Bernstein analyst Nikhil Devnan believes: “If it weren’t for generative AI taking all the headlines, 2024 would probably go down as the Year of Autonomous Vehicles”. While 2024 was a very good year for autonomous vehicles, better years are ahead.
10,000 Miles and Counting On October 3rd, Elon Musk tweeted FSD will soon exceed 10,000 miles between critical interventions.
Zoox Delays Vegas Launch In announcing a partnership with the Vegas Golden Knights, Zoox said they are preparing to launch service in Las Vegas in 2025, not 2024 as previously planned.
This Fall, Waymo Expands Zeekr Testing This fall Waymo will begin expanded testing of their 6th-gen Waymo Driver on Zeekr vehicles in new markets.
Autonomous Drones and Sidewalk Delivery Bots Become Friends Wing, an Alphabet company announced a partnership with Serve Robotics, an autonomous sidewalk delivery company to autonomously deliver drone packages.
GM Is Developing a “Hands Off, Eyes Off” L3 System While there is no timeline for when GM’s L3 System might be released, it is a step forward towards developing personally owned autonomous vehicles. We are keen to see what GM will announce at investor day on 10/8.
Social Buzz
Waymo’s Early Rider Program is now LIVE in Austin
This week, Waymo officially opened their service to early riders in Austin, Texas. The big difference between this early rider launch and previous ones is that Waymo is exclusively available on the Uber app in Austin.
Next up, Atlanta. If the timelines hold from previous launches, we expect Waymo to launch an early rider program around November 12th in Atlanta.
Our take: We expect Waymo to launch full commercial service in Austin without an early rider program in Q1 25.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Another Day, Another Uber Autonomy Deal
On October 3rd, Uber announced that AVRide, which was spun out of Yandex will begin delivering Uber Eats orders in Austin in the coming weeks, with AVRide’s robotaxis being available on the Uber platform in Dallas in late 2025.
Our take: Uber is the platform for autonomy.
Uber is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software category.
Uber is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
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