Pony AI Goes Public on Nasdaq
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This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 1.88%, Pony AI went public on Nasdaq, New Mexico is looking to effectively ban autonomous trucks and vehicles and Hesai’s Q3 2024 revenue grew 21%.
Pony AI’s long and windy road to an IPO finally became a reality on Wednesday, as the company went public on Nasdaq. The IPO marks the next chapter for Pony AI as they look to grow into a profitable autonomy company.
While Pony AI looks to grow, New Mexico is looking to diminish the impact that autonomy will have on the state’s economy. Legislators and advocates in New Mexico are looking to efficiently ban autonomous vehicles and trucks in the state by passing legislation that would require a driver in the vehicle at all times.
The push by select New Mexico legislators will have a negative impact on the state’s economy, leading to higher unemployment and making the state uninvestable for autonomy investors. Prior to the bill being introduced, Torc announced that they are leaving New Mexico and moving to Dallas, Texas.
While the timing of Torc’s announcement and the legislation being introduced are not correlated, it has the optics of undue regulation erasing employment opportunities. Even with hundreds of jobs disappearing, the legislators driving the ban autonomy effort show no signs of slowing down.
When a legislator who is elected by the people, who works for the people chooses to put the interests of special interest groups above those of their constituents, it leaves them feeling despondent. Almost like they have no voice. Constituents want job opportunities, low inflation, good schools, safety and a high-quality of life.
Ban autonomous trucks and autonomous vehicles, and new jobs will not be created, inflation could re-accelerate and additional safe modes of transportation will be eliminated. It has been proven time and time again, including a U.S. DOT study that autonomy will create jobs.
Autonomy is good for the economy and companies that are leaning into and embracing autonomy are growing. In Q3 2024, LiDAR maker Hesai reported a 21% increase in revenue to $76.9 million and forecasted that revenue is further projected to grow to $100 million in Q4 2024.
The LiDAR market is rapidly consolidating around Hesai. Hesai is the LiDAR of choice for autonomous driving engineers who use LiDAR as part of their stack. Currently, Hesai has a 37% share of the global LiDAR market. Over the coming quarters we expect their market share to grow into the mid-forties.
Today marks 31 days until 2025. 2025 is going to be a great year for the autonomy economy. As we head into the new year, we will continue to cover the autonomy economy each and every week in this newsletter, on The Road to Autonomy podcast and on the Autonomy Markets podcast.
Thank you for engaging with our content. We really appreciate your feedback and we are looking forward to continuing to share our thoughts, insights and analysis with you each and every week as we turn the calendar to 2025.
Torc parent Daimler Truck is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
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What’s Moving the Markets
Pony AI Goes Public on Nasdaq
The day before Thanksgiving, Pony AI went public on Nasdaq and successfully raised $260 million. It was a long windy round to get to the IPO, but Pony AI made it happen. Now that the company is public, we are able to get a glimpse into their business model and revenue.
Pony AI currently has a market cap of $4.53 billion as of Friday, November 29th, down from its last private funding round which valued the company at $7 billion. At its core, Pony AI has three core businesses: robotaxi, autonomous trucking and licensing.
Their F-1 filling gave us some interesting insights about the current state of their business. In terms of revenue, their robotruck services business aka autonomous trucking business currently comprises of a fleet of 190 autonomous trucks with safety drivers, operated both independently and in collaboration with Sinotrans.
Collectively, Pony AI’s autonomous trucks have driven 3.1 million miles—16,315 miles per truck (with safety drivers onboard). For fiscal year Q2, Pony AI reported $18 million in robotruck revenue with each truck in the fleet generating $94,736.84 in revenue during the quarter. Average that over four quarters and you have an estimated $378,947.36 in yearly revenue.
While the autonomous trucking revenue numbers are small today, there is a path to scale as mainland China currently has 114,108 miles of highways with six million trucks dedicated to long-haul freight transportation, equaling 52.58 trucks per mile.
Then there is the robotaxi business. The robotaxi fleet currently comprises of 250 vehicles that have collectively driven 2.4 million miles fully autonomously—9,600 miles per vehicle. The small fleet size combined with rather low miles gives us a clear indication of why their robotaxi business is so small.
Our robotruck services had a relatively lower gross margin at its current early stage of commercialization and our robotaxi services had historically only generated a minimal amount of passenger fare revenues due to promotions and discounts offered by us, both of which may not be indicative of their respective future trends.
– Pony AI F-1 Filing
At the end of the day if Pony AI is to become successful it will come down to regulatory certainty, growing the business, increasing margins and eventually achieving profitability.
There is a lot of risk surrounding the company at the moment, but they have really good technology and a solid partnership with Toyota. Where that partnership ultimately goes and how large of a business Pony AI ultimately becomes, has yet to be determined. It’s merely just the top of the first in a nine inning baseball game.
In our opinion, the biggest risk to scaling their robotruck and robotaxi businesses is regulatory. How big will the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) allow Pony AI to scale their businesses?
Our take: As President Trump assumes office on January 20th, and if all the reports are correct that his administration enacts a federal autonomous vehicle framework, look to see what if any restrictions there as it relates to Chinese autonomous vehicle companies. If there are restrictions (which we believe to be a real possibility), China will continue to be Pony AI’s primary market and their global growth will be limited and constrained by the CCP.
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New Mexico is Putting Politics Over Economic Reality
Legislators and advocates in New Mexico have decided that it is a good idea to try and dismantle an emerging industry on the eve of Torc Robotics announcing that they are leaving New Mexico for Dallas, Texas. With Torc Robotics’ departure from Albuquerque, hundreds of jobs are going to be lost and the long-term economic impact on the region will be immense.
While the pending legislation and the announcement of Torc’s departure are not coincidental, the picture it paints is rather bleak. It signals to autonomous truck and vehicle companies along with investors that New Mexico is uninvestable.
Once the stigma of being uninvestable is slapped on New Mexico, it will be a long road back to being investable once again. Why would a company or an investor want to invest resources and create jobs in a state that for all practical purposes wants to ban an emerging technology that creates new high-paying jobs?
Tell that to select legislators and advocates and they will shrug their shoulders, as they are willing to put their own self-interests above those of the residents of New Mexico and the New Mexico economy.
If New Mexico indeed does move forward and puts in place regulations that effectively bans autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks, the thousands of jobs that would have been created will evaporate like a rain drop on the road. What was once there, will be no longer. The dream of building an autonomy economy that supports the state’s economy will be gone forever.
New Mexico will be labeled uninvestable. They will wear it like the scarlet letter. First ban autonomous autonomous trucks and vehicles, then what’s next? Ban warehouse automation? Ban AI? Once they start over-regulating, they don’t stop. Just look at California and what over-regulation has done to their economy and the jobs that have vanished because of it.
This is with the backdrop of New Mexico’s unemployment rate continuing to increase month-over-month. The state’s unemployment rate is 4.3% (October 2024), the highest all year, could see a further increase once Torc officially closes up shop and lays off hundreds of employees. The local ecosystem that supported Torc could see layoffs as well due a lack of business.
All of this is happening as New Mexico is currently in the midst of slowdown in job hiring. One would think that it would be a good idea to support job creators in a slowing job market, not force them to leave.
Jobs are created by companies that are growing. Jobs are not created by companies that are leaving because of the regulatory environment. All New Mexico has to do is look west and see what the regulatory environment has done to California’s economy. Does New Mexico want to be next? It sure looks that way.
Our take: Make no mistake about it, the special interests behind this effort chose New Mexico for a very strategic reason. They want to close down the I-10 to autonomous trucks. Closing the I-10 to autonomous trucks will lead to interstate economic disruptions and job losses. It is important that we come together as an industry to advocate for the positive economic benefits of autonomy.
Torc parent Daimler Truck is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Piquing Our Interest
Hesai’s Q3 Revenue Grew 21%, LiDAR Shipments Doubled Year-Over-Year The market for LiDAR is clearly consolidating around Hesai, as their global market share for LiDAR has grown to 37%. For Q4, Hesai is projecting $100 million in revenue.
It Was Cheaper than an Uber This was the first reaction of New Zealand Herald Reporter Chris Keall when he ordered a Waymo in Los Angeles. If Waymo continues to undercut Uber on price, Uber will lose market share to Waymo in cities where Waymo does not run on the Uber platform. Raising the question, over the long-term does Waymo even need Uber?
Singapore’s Warm Embrace of Autonomous Vehicles Singapore has a long history of warmly embracing autonomous vehicles dating back to NuTonomy in 2016. Over the years, Singapore has only built on their affection for autonomy as companies such as WeRide continue to test in the city/state.
Germany is Now Leaning into Autonomous Vehicles, Prepares for Widespread Launches in 26/27 As their traditional automotive business enters a period of secular decline, Richard Damm, President of the Federal Motor Transport Authority in Germany is urging German politicians to lean into autonomous vehicles by greenlighting commercial use.
Czech Republic Prepares Autonomous Vehicles, Implements SAE Level 2/3 PolicyIn 2026, the Czech Republic will implement a conditional automation system policy, allowing drivers to use SAE Level 2 and 3 systems on designated sections of highways.
Baidu Has Been Granted a License to Test Autonomous Vehicles in Hong KongBaidu has been granted a license to test 10 autonomous vehicles in 10 autonomous vehicles in North Lantau. The license will be valid from Dec. 9, 2024 to Dec. 8, 2029, with only one self-driving car operating on specified road sections at a time in the first phase.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Cruise is Testing in Dallas with Employees
On Thanksgiving, Will Coleman, CEO of Alto spotted a Cruise autonomous vehicle testing in his Dallas neighborhood. We can confirm that the passenger in the vehicle is indeed a Cruise employee. In Dallas, the Cruise service is currently only open to employees, as they test the service in preparation for a commercial launch in 2025.
Our take: 2025 is going to be a very big year for Cruise. Just don’t call it a comeback, it’s a completely new company with new leadership and a new approach to safely scaling a profitable robotaxi service.
Cruise parent GM is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
BMW and Qualcomm are Testing Autonomous Driving Features in the UK
BMW and Qualcomm are testing vehicles equipped with autonomous driving features in the UK. This partnership was first announced in 2022. What level these vehicles are testing at remains unknown, but nevertheless this is a positive step forward in the development of autonomy.
Our take: As Qualcomm looks to improve their stock performance the company is expanding their automotive business in a significant manner. Perhaps this photo is a real world indication of their commitment to building their automotive business and capturing a slice of the autonomous driving market with their Snapdragon Digital Chassis solution.
Qualcomm is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of November 25th, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 1.88%, the S&P 500 returned 1.41% and the NASDAQ 100 returned 0.91%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.47% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.97%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 22.89%
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Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
What does the Autonomous Trucking Industry Need from Washington, D.C. to Scale Commercial Operations?
Daniel Goff, Director of External Affairs, Kodiak joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss what the autonomous trucking industry needs from Washington, D.C. in order to scale commercial operations.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Tuesday, November 26, 2024
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Tesla Fleet API, Cybercab Hype and the Pony AI IPO
This week Tesla unveiled their fleet API which could be a precursor to Tesla introducing a Cybercab service with 3rd party fleet operators. The company also begun the process of strategically positioning Cybercabs in showrooms, malls around the world and at high-profile events such as Art Basel in Miami. Tesla is effectively using these displays as a form of brand advertising.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Saturday, November 30, 2024
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
Inclusion of a security within The Road to Autonomy Index® is not a recommendation by The Road to Autonomy Indices LLC to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.
