Turning Lyft’s Robotaxi Narrative into a Strategic Advantage
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 2.44%, Lyft went motoring down the AV superhighway, Dara Khosrowshahi continued shaping Uber’s autonomy narrative, and Nuro expanded autonomous vehicle testing to San Francisco.
As we prepare to enter March 2025—a month poised to be historic for the autonomous vehicle and trucking industries—the investor and industry narrative surrounding Uber and Lyft continues to shift in their favor.
Concerns over the risks of robotaxis are fading as Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi and Lyft CEO David Risher successfully reframe the narrative by emphasizing the strength of their platforms and the opportunities ahead as autonomous vehicles scale.
A key focus of this shift is the growing role that fleets will play in their business models. As autonomous vehicles scale, a significant portion will operate within fleet models, fundamentally reshaping the market.
By embracing fleets, Uber and Lyft will lower their operational costs (lower insurance premiums) and increased vehicle uptime, if the vehicles are properly maintained. In preparation for this shift, Uber has invested in Moove, a mobility fintech startup with fleet management experience, while Lyft has been touting FlexDrive, its own fleet management company.
Surprisingly absent from the recent fleet conversation are car rental companies—experts in fleet management, vehicle depreciation strategies, and financing. The buzz surrounding the car rental companies and autonomous vehicles started to peter out in late 2018 following Waymo’s partnership with Avis, Apple’s partnership with Hertz and Enterprise’s partnership with Voyage Auto.
With Uber and Lyft now emphasizing fleet-based models and an emerging market for autonomous vehicle fleet ownership, is it time for car rental companies to make their move again?
One potential possibility is for a major car rental company to partner with a private equity giant—Blackstone, Apollo, KKR—to create an Autonomous Vehicle REIT. The PE firm could provide capital and infrastructure to manage a REIT-style investment vehicle, while the rental car company could operates and maintain the fleets.
The opportunities in autonomy are endless—sometimes it just takes thinking outside the box.
Lyft and Uber are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
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What’s Moving the Markets
Turning Lyft’s Robotaxi Narrative Into Strategic Advantage
Credit should be given where and when it’s due, and it’s time to recognize David Risher, CEO of Lyft, for successfully reshaping the robotaxi narrative into a positive catalyst for the company.
Central to this shift has been Lyft’s consistent messaging on the value of its platform and the critical role partnerships will play in the autonomous vehicle ecosystem. Building on this, Mr. Risher published Motoring Down the AV Superhighwayon February 18th, a blog post we consider Lyft’s autonomous vehicle manifesto.
On Saturday’s Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk provided an in-depth breakdown of the post, which you can watch on YouTube. Our biggest takeaway was Mr. Risher’s honest and strategic assessment of Lyft’s role in the autonomous vehicle landscape.
The key to changing the narrative so far has been Lyft’s consistent messaging around the value of the Lyft platform and the role partnerships will play in the autonomous vehicle ecosystem.
The autonomous vehicle ecosystem will become even more dynamic as personally-owned autonomous vehicles enter the market at scale. These vehicles will shift from traditional depreciating assets to revenue-generating ones, and in some cases, even turn a profit depending on utilization.
If the economics prove viable, we foresee a future where individuals and businesses purchase dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of these vehicles and deploy them on the Lyft network. (When the technology is ready, we will be participating in this new market.)
Personally-owned autonomous vehicles are the new rideshare drivers—the key difference being that “you” can be on the road earning while you sleep or watch your child’s baseball game.
As the cost of AV technology comes down and the availability broadens, we want every self-driving car to be “Lyft-ready,” with turnkey access to our platform. That will make it possible for small and medium-sized fleet owners to invest in AV fleets that can be integrated into our supply the same way Black car and livery fleets are today. A little further down the road, when “Lyft-ready” AV features come standard in every car, any car owner will become a potential partner.
This will be the tipping point for the revolution. Mass-market Lyft-ready AVs will exponentially grow supply (which is great for riders), while also unlocking new opportunities for earners (which is great for drivers and other individuals). People will have the option to keep driving with Lyft as they do today, or use their cars to earn money while they spend their time in other meaningful ways — meeting up with a friend, catching up on sleep, or starting another entrepreneurial venture.
– David Risher, CEO of Lyft, Motoring down the AV superhighway, February 18, 2025
This is a page from Elon Musk’s playbook for the Tesla robotaxi network, but with one key difference: Lyft’s vision allows any “Lyft-ready” autonomous vehicle to join the network, whereas Tesla’s platform will be exclusive to Tesla vehicles.
Then comes the economics—Mr. Musk has publicly stated that Tesla would likely take a 25-30% cut of the revenue. Lyft, what’s your estimated cut? Will you aim to undercut Tesla, or wait until market standard pricing emerges?
Regardless of the approach, as market fragmentation accelerates—driven by the rise of licensing—both Lyft and its biggest competitor, Uber, are positioned to benefit from the growth of both robotaxis and personally-owned autonomous vehicles.
Next big opportunity: Autonomous Vehicle REITs. Who’s going to do it? If you’re exploring the idea of creating a REIT-like vehicle for autonomous vehicle fleets, let’s talk.
Our take: Lyft has a promising future in autonomy—now, they just need to execute on their vision.
Lyft, Tesla and Uber are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Lyft is currently ranked #2 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.
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Piquing Our Interest
Dara Khosrowshahi Discusses Uber’s Autonomous Vehicle Strategy At the FII PRIORITY event in Miami this week, Mr. Khosrowshahi discussed Uber’s autonomous vehicle strategy and the potential integration of Tesla robotaxis onto the Uber platform.
Waymo is Partnering with Hotels in San Francisco Waymo has partnered with the Hyatt Regency Downtown SOMA to offer riders 25% off their first two Waymo rides.
1-800 Sue and Settle Unfortunately that is the name of the game when it comes to the “profession” called trial lawyers. In Beverly Hills, there is now a billboard advertising; “Autonomous Vehicle Crash, Get Way Mo’”. What’s next? Got rained on, sue the weather channel?
Baidu is Scaling Apollo Go (Robotaxis) in China In Q4 2024, Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxi service completed 1.1 million rides, a 36% year-over-year increase.
Dubai Taxi Company To Launch Autonomous Vehicle Service The Dubai Taxi Company is planning to launch a robotaxi service by Q1 2026. While details remain vague, the announcement is a clear indication that the UAE is emerging as a hub for autonomous vehicles.
Grab is Preparing to Launch a Fleet of Autonomous Vehicles in Southeast Asia Grab is in active discussions with regulators in Southeast Asia about deploying autonomous vehicles on its network. While the talks are ongoing, the autonomous vehicle provider remains unknown. Could it be BYD, given their existing electric vehicle partnership? Only time will tell.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Nuro Expands Testing to San Francisco
Nuro has expanded autonomous vehicle testing to San Francisco. While these vehicles still have safety drivers, this expansion signifies a positive step as Nuro prepares to commercialize their licensing business model.
Our take: Next step, fully autonomous and licensable.
Nuro is currently ranked #1 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the licensing category.
Waymo Saves a Life
It is becoming very evident that Waymo is the safest vehicle on the road today, as Waymo vehicles always remains focused, never gets distracted, stressed, or impaired, and constantly anticipates “what-if” scenarios. This video highlights why having Waymo vehicles in your neighborhood is a safer alternative to human drivers who could be distracted.
Our take: If this vehicle was being driven by a human, there is a good chance that the individuals on the skateboard would have been seriously inquired or killed.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of February, 17, 2025, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 2.44%, the S&P 500 declined 1.66% and the NASDAQ 100 declined 2.26%. The Road to Autonomy Index underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.78% and underperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.18%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 4.73%
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Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
Trump, China & Autonomous Vehicles: Inside Look at U.S. Transportation Policy
Finch Fulton, Government Affairs and Public Policy Advisor, K&L Gates joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss autonomous vehicle policy under the Trump administration, China’s technological threat, and the path to establishing a national autonomous vehicle framework.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
February 18, 2025
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Lyft’s Autonomous Vehicle Manifesto, LiDAR’s Potential Big Winners, Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicle Fleets
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk analyze Lyft’s autonomous vehicle manifesto, the looming consolidation of the LiDAR market, the rise of personally-owned autonomous vehicle fleets, and Waabi’s ambitious driver-out strategy, all while discussing the critical need for a national regulatory framework.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
February 22, 2025
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A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
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