Lyft’s Autonomous Vehicle Strategy Takes Shape
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 2.85%, Lyft’s autonomous vehicle strategy is beginning to take shape, Aurora is preparing for driver-out operations in Texas and May Mobility launched fully autonomous operations in Peachtree Corners, Georgia.
Just 46 days into 2025, and the autonomy economy is thriving. Robotaxis are scaling nationwide, and Aurora is on track to go driver-out in the next 73 days. By May 1st, fully autonomous robotaxis will be operating in six states and autonomous trucks will be operating fully autonomous in two states.
Autonomy is no longer science fiction—it’s reality, and it’s scaling. As autonomy scales, questions continue to emerge about Uber and the impact of robotaxis on their business.
In last week’s newsletter, we asked: Is Waymo a friend or foe to Uber? The results were split, with 50% of readers saying Waymo is a friend, 40% a foe and 10% unsure. If Waymo is indeed Uber’s friend, how do you see their relationship evolving as Waymo scales? Reply to this email and let us know your thoughts and we might feature some of the responses in next week’s newsletter.
For 2025, we are making The Road to Autonomy more interactive. Soon, we’ll be hosting X Spaces and live YouTube streams with industry experts and friends. Let us know which topics you’d like us to cover by sending us a note on X.
2025 is going to be a big year for autonomy, and we’ll be here each week to share our insights with you. The Future is Bright, The Future is Autonomous, The Future is the Autonomy Economy.
Aurora Innovation, Uber and Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
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What’s Moving the Markets
Lyft’s Autonomous Vehicle Strategy Takes Shape
Lyft’s autonomous vehicle plans are beginning to take shape. This year, May Mobility will launch robotaxis on the Lyft network in Atlanta and Mobileye-powered robotaxis are expected to roll out in Dallas “as soon as 2026.”
The news of the Mobileye powered robotaxi launch came via an X post from Lyft CEO David Risher on February 10, 2025. In a series of posts, Mr. Risher highlighted the Dallas launch, Lyft’s partnership with Japanese trading firm Marubeni (a Berkshire Hathaway-backed company with fleet expertise), and the role of Flexdrive will play in Lyft’s autonomy strategy.
Lyft is embracing a model similar to the one that Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk have discussed in-depth on Autonomy Markets, Autonomous Vehicle REITs—scaling robotaxi operations without owning the assets.
Marubeni brings fleet ownership expertise, while Flexdrive handles fleet management, creating a strong financial and operational foundation. However, a key piece is still missing: the OEM partner. Could it be VW, given its global collaboration with Mobileye?
If VW is the OEM, why not announce it with a firm timeline instead of “as soon as 2026”? Lyft’s earnings call on February 11th provided no clarity, and analysts didn’t push for answers. Is there even an OEM partner yet?
The lack of OEM details raises questions—why didn’t Lyft double down on May Mobility and announce Dallas as the next market after Atlanta, with Marubeni owning the fleet? May Mobility offers a clear multi-city expansion path, while Mobileye’s robotaxi roadmap remains uncertain.
Despite the vagueness of the announcement, Lyft’s autonomy strategy is taking shape—it’s a strategy rooted in partnerships. By leveraging its platform while partners develop the robotaxis and finance the fleet, Lyft is pursuing an asset-light model designed to scale. But for this model to succeed, it must be de-risked with multiple robotaxi partners.
To de-risk, could Lyft revive its old partnership with Waymo? Team up with Zoox? Or collaborate with an OEM licensing Nuro or Wayve’s autonomous driving stack? Anything is possible, but for Lyft to thrive in autonomy, it needs diversification—and, most importantly, it has to give the market clarity.
Our take: When May Mobility launches a robotaxi service on the Lyft network in Atlanta this year, it will be a seminal moment for the company.
Lyft , Waymo parent Alphabet and Zoox parent Amazon re The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Lyft is currently ranked #2 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.
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All Signs Point Towards Driver-Out in April
All signs point to driver-out by April, as Aurora revealed in its Q4 2024 earnings release that their Autonomy Readiness Measure (ARM) reached 99% in January. Once ARM hits 100%—which may have already happened—Aurora will be cleared for launch.
We fully expect Aurora to complete its first fully autonomous (no safety driver) Dallas-to-Houston run by the end of March, a full month ahead of schedule. As part of its commercial rollout, Aurora is preparing to deploy tens of fully autonomous trucks by the end of year.
With fully autonomous trucks operating daily on the roads of America, the era of autonomous trucking will officially begin. This era will usher in major economic benefits—creating jobs, lowering inflation, and addressing supply chain imbalances.
To realize this potential, autonomous trucking must scale—and that’s exactly what Chris Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO of Aurora, is focused on. During the earnings call, Mr. Urmson stated the following about scaling:
The significant progress we’re making toward this generation hardware is critical as it will unlock true scale on the order of tens of thousands of trucks.
While we work toward Continental start of production in 2027, our third-generation commercial kit, we also continue to advance our second-generation commercial hardware kit. We plan to introduce this kit later this year to support our ambitions to scale to hundreds of millions of miles traveled autonomously. This generation brings exciting performance gains and importantly, we expect it to drive a step-function reduction in our hardware costs, which is a critical element on our path to self-funding. During the fourth quarter, we received A samples from our contract manufacturer, Fibernet, and have integrated this prototype kit into its first vehicle for testing.
– Chris Urmson, Aurora Q4 2024 Earnings Call (Transcript), February 12, 2025
Commercial kits enabling autonomous driving are the future of autonomous trucking—a strategy that Don Burnette, Founder & CEO of Kodiak, has championed since Kodiak’s founding in 2018.
Despite being competitors, Mr. Burnette and Mr. Urmson both recognize what an autonomous driving kit unlocks—scale. Neither Aurora nor Kodiak aims to be a trucking company; they instead strive to be enablers, making autonomous trucking both scalable and profitable.
Aurora’s partnership with Continental could prove to be its most valuable one yet, as it weakens the OEM’s control. With an automotive-grade autonomous driving kit, the power shifts from the OEM to the autonomous driving developer. Aurora has all the pieces in place, and now is the time for them to scale.
Our take: In just over four years, the balance of power has shifted from OEMs to autonomous trucking developers. Sometimes, change requires time, sometimes courage, and other times a mix of strategy and luck. Regardless of the path, Aurora made it happen—and they deserve a ton of credit. Well done, Team Aurora!
Aurora Innovation is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Aurora is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucking category.
Piquing Our Interest
May Mobility Goes Fully Autonomous in Peachtee Corners On February 12th, May Mobility announced their third fully autonomous commercial launch in Peachtree Corners, a suburb of Atlanta, Georgia.
Waymo is Exploring a Membership Tier Waymo is currently exploring launching a membership service that would offer priority pickups, free cancellations, credits and early access to new markets. It’s only a matter of time until Waymo, Lyft and Uber fully embrace an airline type rewards program for loyal riders.
NVIDIA Invests in WeRide, Closes Out Serve Robotics Position NVIDIA has acquired1.7 million shares of WeRide and closed out its Serve Robotics position.
Baidu is Looking to Expand Robotaxi Service to Dubai As part of China’s effort to export autonomy to the world, Baidu is currently looking at deploying their Apollo Go robotaxi service in Dubai.
BYD Unveils “God’s Eye”, an Autonomous Driving System This week BYD unveiled “God’s Eye”, an autonomous driving system that will soon be available on all of their vehicles. The system was built in-house and appears to be BYD’s answer to Tesla’s FSD.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Waymo Expands Service Area in LA
Another week, another expansion for Waymo. This time, Waymo is expanding their LA service area to parts of Westchester and Inglewood. Next stop, LAX?
Our take: As Waymo expands in LA, we are watching for an expansion north of Sunset, through the canyons, and into the valley, along with service at LAX. Expanding service in these areas would boost ridership and Waymo could eventually become Angelenos’ preferred choice for daily commuting to and from work.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARDin the autonomous vehicle category.
Nuro Showcases Nuro Driver Assist
Nuro continues to lean into their licensing pivot. This week, Nuro showed the Nuro Driver successfully navigating a construction site in Mountain View. In the future, every vehicle sold will feature an advanced driving system capable of driving itself under certain conditions. Traditionally, OEMs have struggled developing both SAE Level 2 and 4 systems, creating a significant opportunity for Nuro to capitalize on as they prepare to commercialize the Nuro driver.
If you are interested in learning more about Nuro’s pivot to licensing, we would recommend the following podcast; Nuro’s Bold Pivot to Licensing, a conversation with Andrew Chapin, Chief Operating Officer, Nuro (December 10, 2024)
Our take: Nuro has the technology and the leadership to successfully pivot to a licensing model. We are looking forward to Nuro’s first licensing announcement.
Nuro is currently ranked #2 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the licensing category.
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of February, 10, 2025, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 2.85%, the S&P 500 returned 1.47% and the NASDAQ 100 returned 2.90%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 1.38% and underperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.05%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 7.17%
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Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
Inclusion of a security within The Road to Autonomy Index® is not a recommendation by The Road to Autonomy Indices LLC to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.
