The Road to Autonomy Index Outperforms S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in 2024
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 1.63%, in 2024 The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and Bot Auto has been cleared for takeoff by a Texas judge.
2024 was a banner year for the autonomy economy, validated by the performance of the The Road to Autonomy Index (the world’s first and only pure-play rules-based index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market). The index outperformed the broader market and demonstrated to both subscribers and investors that autonomy is a growth market.
Fourteen days from today, President-elect Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. When President Trump is sworn into office on January 20th, he will become only the 2nd U.S. President after Grover Cleveland 22nd president (1885–1889) and the 24th president (1893–1897) to have served two non-consecutive terms.
During President Trump’s second term there is hope that his administration will further accelerate the growth of the autonomy economy by introducing and signing into law a national autonomous vehicle framework.
A national framework governing autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks will give investors the regulatory certainty that they have been seeking. A national framework will unlock investments, leading to job creation and long-term economic growth.
With this backdrop in mind, the Council for Economic Resilience together with The Road to Autonomy will be hosting Cocktails, Autonomy and Advocacy in Washington, D.C. on January 16th. If you are interested in attending, send us a note on LinkedIn.
Now is the time to come together as an industry to ensure that there is a strong and stable regulatory framework that allows autonomous vehicles and trucks to thrive and prosper. Join us in D.C. as we begin to lay the groundwork for a national autonomous vehicle framework.
This week, Bot Auto got one heck of a new year’s gift when a Texas judge ruled in their favor and denied TuSimple’s temporary restraining order and an application for temporary and permanent injunctions against the company. With this ruling now in hand, the autonomous trucking industry officially has a new entry—Bot Auto.
Each and every year brings change and this year change came early for Aurora. In a January 3rd filing, Aurora announced Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber has resigned from the board. While we are uncertain what this means today (could Uber look to sell their Aurora stock), we are certain that change is coming at Uber.
Mahatma Gandhi once famously said, “be the change that you wish to see in the world.” Could this change be Mr. Khosrowshahi wishing to see Uber ramp up an autonomous vehicle fleet program, perhaps in partnership with Wayve? Something is changing at Uber, the only question is what?
Aurora Innovation and Uber are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
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What’s Moving the Markets
The Road to Autonomy Index Outperformed S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in 2024
The Road to Autonomy Index gained 26.60% in 2024, outperforming both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 returned 23% and the Nasdaq 100 returned 24.88% collectively.
It was a banner year for autonomy in the public markets, as investors began to pay attention to the robotaxi narrative. While the robotaxi narrative drove exceptional returns at Tesla, it led to the demise of GM’s autonomous vehicle company—Cruise.
That same narrative put pressure on Uber, as investors began to doubt Uber’s role in a future with robotaxis. Uber’s stock sold off of these fears in 2024 and as we enter 2025, those fears have yet to be laid to rest.
For Uber to be successful in autonomy, they have to take control of the narrative and play to their strengths—which is being a platform. While Uber is a well known platform with a billion dollar a year ad business that is growing quickly, very little investor attention is paid to Uber Freight. Yet, Uber Freight has the largest autonomous trucking capacity in the market.
As autonomous trucking companies begin fully autonomous operations (with no safety driver) in 2025, Uber stands to be one of the biggest winners as a large majority of those loads will have originated on the Uber Freight platform.
In our opinion credit goes to Olivia Hu and her team. What Ms. Hu has at built Uber Freight will enable Uber to become the Visa/Mastercard of autonomous trucking. Uber “Autonomous” Freight will connect the shipper and the carrier, while Uber collects a transaction fee for enabling the transaction.
It’s a model that has proven itself time and time again to be highly scalable and profitable. Once an Uber Freight autonomous trucking partner begins driver-out service in earnest, Uber should begin to highlight the benefits of the Uber Freight platform along with its autonomous trucking economics.
Uber should change the narrative and shift the focus towards a core strength—autonomous trucking. This would give the company time to truly develop their long-term robotaxi strategy, while demonstrating to investors that Uber will be a major player in autonomous trucking.
Uber is the only company today that stands to benefit from both the growth of autonomous trucks and robotaxis. While we are still in the early innings of robotaxis and investors are justified in their concerns about Uber.
The company has all the right ingredients to prosper in the autonomy economy. They just need to put the ingredients together and deliver on the narrative that resonates with investors.
The narrative today is that the robotaxi market is set. It’s an oligopoly between Waymo and Tesla. If the market becomes fragmented with licensing deals and fleets (operated in a similar fashion to REITs), both Uber and Lyft will benefit.
Looking from the outside in is Amazon and Zoox. From an analyst perspective, Amazon has completely mismanaged the robotaxi narrative. Amazon, what is your strategy for Zoox?
The robotaxi market is passing you by as Zoox is not part of the robotaxi conversation. Zoox used to be a part of the conversation when Tim Kentley-Klay was CEO. What has happened since then that has caused Zoox’s public narrative stock to fall like a skydiver without a parachute?
Zoox is not part of the conversation. Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and Alphabet does not even consider them a competitor. Mr. Pichai views Tesla as Waymo’s biggest competitor, not Zoox.
Why? Simple. Zoox is not part of the zeitgeist. Our advice to Mr. Jassy and the Zoox management team is now is the time to change the narrative. It’s a new year and new years bring change.
If Amazon and Zoox are serious about launching, operating and scaling a robotaxi service, let the world know now. Otherwise Zoox risks fading into obscurity and ending up as a rounding error on Amazon’s balance sheet.
2025 is the year to take hold of the narrative, as investors look for autonomy investment opportunities. Now is the time to capitalize on the investor excitement and build the future.
In 2024, a basket of 38 stocks that comprises The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the market. Will this trend continue into 2025 is anyone’s guess, but we do know that autonomy continues to be top of mind for forward-thinking growth investors.
Our take: Autonomy is becoming an economy. An economy that we call the autonomy economy.
Alphabet, Amazon, Lyft, Mastercard, Tesla, Uber and Visa are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Advocating For The Autonomy Economy | Sponsored
Automation and autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Council for Economic Resilience is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.
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Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group that is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American people.
Bot Auto is Cleared For Takeoff
An eleventh business court of Texas judge has ruled in favor of Bot Auto, in a case that saw TuSimple petition the court for a temporary restraining order and an application for temporary and permanent injunctions. On December 28th, the judge ruled that TuSimple’s application for temporary injunction was denied, clearing Bot Auto for take off.
As most sagas go, things do not end on the first round and now Bot Auto has filed a counterclaims against TuSimple Holdings, Inc. (now CreateAI Holdings Inc.) for a bad-faith lawsuit alleging trade secret misappropriation.
In the counterclaim, Bot Auto argues that TuSimple’s claims are baseless, citing TuSimple’s public disclosures of its technology and its subsequent rebranding away from autonomous trucking to a digital entertainment content production company.
The counterclaims include allegations of business disparagement and tortious interference. Bot Auto contends that TuSimple initiated the lawsuit to harm Bot Auto and its founder, Dr. Xiaodi Hou, amidst internal conflicts and shareholder litigation at TuSimple.
While we do not yet know how the judge will rule in Bot Auto’s counterclaims suit, we do know that the fear of Bot Auto having to shut down either temporarily or permanently has dissipated.
We visited Dr. Hou in Houston in November where we took a ride in Bot Auto’s autonomous truck. The truck performed especially well and had zero disengagements over the course of our hour plus ride which included city streets, frontage roads and the freeway.
We walked away from our visit with Dr. Hou and the Bot Auto team impressed. Now that Bot Auto is cleared for takeoff, we are looking forward to seeing how the company scales technical and commercial operations.
If you are interested in learning more about Bot Auto, we would recommend the following podcast: From TuSimple to Bot Auto: Xiaodi Hou’s New Plan for Profitable Autonomous Trucking (October 22, 2024).
Piquing Our Interest
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi Resigns from Aurora’s Board In a January 3rd filing, Aurora announced Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber has resigned from the board.
Uber is Off to a Strong Start in 2025 as Investors Shake Off Robotaxi Fears Will the strong start hold and will investors continue to shake off the robotaxi fears as analysts debate the company’s future in autonomy? Only time will tell.
Waymo is Changing the Lives of Blind Individuals in San Francisco For those individuals who are blind, autonomous vehicles are a lifeline. They offer mobility freedom without being a burden on a rideshare driver, a loved one or a friend. In San Fransisco, Waymo is having a positive impact on the blind community as they are making mobility accessible.
Man Tries to Steal Waymo in LA, Doesn’t Go Well A drunk man tried to steal a Waymo in Downtown LA and take it for a joyride. It didn’t go well, as the Waymo vehicle is unable to be driven manually while in service.
Autonomous Vehicles are Heading to Beijing Another day, another pro-autonomy policy announcement from China. This week, Beijing passed new regulations allowing both autonomous vehicles and buses to operate in the capital.
Pony AI Is Looking to Expand to Hong Kong In a move to further compete with Baidu, Pony AI is seeking to provide “robotaxi commuting services” for airport staff within the Hong Kong International Airport, while later expanding into the city’s urban areas.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Alex Kendall, OBE
Alex Kendall, Co-Founder & CEO of Wayve was awarded Order of the British Empire for his contributions to the development of artificial intelligence.
Our take: Congratulations, Alex! The future is very bright for Wayve!
Wayve is currently ranked #4 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicles category.
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of December 30th, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 1.63%, the S&P 500 declined 1.07% and the NASDAQ 100 declined 1.75%. The Road to Autonomy Index underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.56% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.12%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 1.29%
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Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
A Global Vision for Autonomous Trucking
David Liu, CEO & Co-Founder, Plus joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss Plus’ global vision for autonomous trucking.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
2025 Autonomy Outlook, Legacy Automakers’ Innovation Paralysis, Will FSD Return Tesla to Growth?
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discussed Waymo’s autonomy leadership and expansion, Tesla’s safety milestones and challenges, evolving industry regulations and legacy automakers’ struggles.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Saturday, January 4, 2025
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
Inclusion of a security within The Road to Autonomy Index® is not a recommendation by The Road to Autonomy Indices LLC to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.
