Ford To Explore Licensing an Autonomous Driving System?
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 1.90%, Ford is exploring an SAE Level 4 licensing deal, Volvo Autonomous Solutions partnered with Waabi, and Uber is finding its autonomous vehicle stride.
Uber had a volatile week in the market, initially dropping after its Q4 2024 earnings release before rebounding to close out the week up 14%. The surge followed Bill Ackman’s disclosure that Pershing Square Capital Management acquired 30.3 million Uber shares ($2.3 billion as of February 7, 2025).
Mr. Ackman’s investment signals strong support for Uber CEO Mr. Dara Khosrowshahi and his vision for autonomy. As we’ve consistently highlighted, Mr. Khosrowshahi is one of the best executives in the autonomy economy today. This week, that strategy became even clearer when Uber released Autonomous Vehicles Spotlight as part of the Q4 2024 earnings release.
Uber is positioning itself as the platform to power a robotaxi network serviced by third-party fleets—and potentially autonomous vehicle REITs. This model will drive market fragmentation, reduce insurance requirements, and boost supply, reducing the market’s dependence on Waymo.
As autonomous vehicle supply scales, Uber stands to benefit. Despite prevailing narratives, the company is playing the long game—waiting for licensing to accelerate its fleet strategy. When licensing arrives, Waymo could follow suit and license the Waymo driver as well, further accelerating Uber’s bet on fleets.
We’re only in the top of the first inning of a nine-inning game, with Waymo leading big early. But the bottom of the first is approaching, and Uber is stepping up to bat. With Mr. Khosrowshahi hitting cleanup, can he hit a grand slam?
Uber and Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
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What’s Moving the Markets
Ford To Explore Licensing an Autonomous Driving System?
The autonomous driving licensing market is heating up, with deals on the horizon. Ford CEO Jim Farley hinted at Ford’s potential to license an autonomous driving system during the company’s Q4 2024 earnings call.
You got it. I think, we’re at that point where we have to decide. Look, Level 3 is around the corner. We’re now — BlueCruise is now over 300 million miles.
Customers are still paying for it. We did drop the price, by the way. So it is getting commoditized to some extent, but it is still a great opportunity. But the capability in the company is growing.
All those Argo people that came with Ford, they are developing a really nice Level 2, Level 3 system that we think will be among the best in its execution. We may not be the first — we may not grab all the headlines, but look at BlueCruise. BlueCruise is continuing to win all the consumer awards for the best operating system on Level 2. Level 2+ is around the corner.
Level 3, we think is a huge unlock on highway miles, eyes off. I think, we are in good shape with our internal capabilities. But look, we’re not so pollyannish about our own capability that we’re not going to look at other people’s system or not believe that Level 4 personal autonomy is going to be interesting at some point. They’re making a lot of progress over there in Level 4.
And it is time for us, not just in the U.S. but globally to start looking at — and that’s why we made some of the announcements we did today because we need a strong strategy team to decide, do we partner? Do we continue to ride our own team into this Level 4 personal autonomy? And I think you’re going to find, just like our move on Argo, we’ll be thoughtful and practical. We won’t get in love with the size of the market. We’ll make a practical decision, and I think we’ll be well-positioned.
I’m very confident in Sami and Doug and their technical prowess. They know the FSD system. They know what’s out there. They know the Waymo system as they get democratized for Level 4, individual Level 4.
And so, I think we’ll make a good decision. But I think, Adam, we’re a lot closer to that partnering decision at Ford.
– Jim Farley, CEO, Ford, Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript, February 5, 2025
Could Ford strike a deal with neutral autonomous driving developers Wayve or Nuro? Or could the unthinkable happen—partnering with Tesla to license FSD?
Would Mr. Bill Ford approve? How would Ford customers react to a deal with Tesla? What vehicle platforms would FSD be available on and how would it be branded?
No matter what path Ford chooses, a partnership with either Tesla, Wayve or Nuro would give Ford a huge advantage over cross-town rival GM. GM clung to Cruise too long, leading to its spectacular failure, unfortunately because of GM management. Ford, having cut ties with Argo AI early, is now in prime position to capitalize on licensing.
Sign an autonomous driving licensing deal, advantage, Ford. Once a licensed autonomous driving system is integrated into its vehicles, Ford could sell them to a fleet operator or an autonomous vehicle REIT, which could then deploy them on the Uber network—boosting Uber’s supply, Ford’s sales, and the autonomous driving partners’ revenue.
But, how will these vehicles be insured? It’s actually not a problem. Koop (our wonderful sponsor) already has a program in place to underwrite this risk. Sergey Litvinenko, Co-Founder & CEO of Koop joined Grayson Brulte and Pete Bigelow, Automotive News on a previous episode of The Road to Autonomy, where he walks through the risks in licensing and how to insure those vehicles.
The tech is ready. The insurance is ready. Now is the time for Ford to reclaim its leadership mantle in the global auto industry.
Mr. Farley, it’s time to put Level 3 in the rearview mirror and embrace the future. You’re clearly thinking about it—now act. Wall Street loves the autonomy narrative. Ride the wave and make Ford great again.
Our take: Sometimes you just have to make a decision. Now is that time.
Tesla and Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Wayve is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the licensing category.
Nuro is currently ranked #2 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the licensing category.
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Volvo Autonomous Solutions Partners with Waabi to Bolster Autonomous Trucking-as-a-Service
On Tuesday, February 4th, Volvo Autonomous Solutions announced a strategic partnership with Waabi in an effort to further bolster their autonomous trucking-as-a-service business model. Waabi’s and Volvo’s relationship dates back to 2023, when Volvo Group Venture Capital invested in Waabi as part of their Series B round.
The newly expanded relationship comes on the heels of Volvo’s partnership with Aurora that first materialized in 2018 and was officially cemented in 2021 with a formal partnership agreement. With two autonomous trucking partners and perhaps more coming in the future, Volvo is clearly going all-in on autonomy.
Customers will now have the choice of either the Aurora or Waabi driver as both virtual drivers will be integrated into the Volvo VNL Autonomous truck. The VNL is a truck that was built for autonomy featuring six critical redundant systems—dual braking, steering, communication, computing, power, energy storage, and motion control—enabling safe operations.
The VNL is a platform that will enable Volvo to scale an autonomous trucking-as-a-service model. By partnering with multiple autonomous trucking developers, Volvo is hedging their bets to ensure that they can deliver the best product in the market for their customers.
On next week’s episode of The Road to Autonomy podcast, Shahrukh Kazmi, Chief Product Officer, Volvo Autonomous Solutions joined us to share his insights into how Volvo Autonomous Solutions is approaching the future of autonomous trucking.
Volvo Autonomous Solutions approach to autonomous trucking is different from their competitors, as they are going to own the asset and operate the service, eliminating any potential operational headaches that could arise as the service scales.
The podcast will be released on Tuesday, February 11th. Subscribe on YouTube and Spotify to be notified when the episode is released.
Our take: With multiple virtual drivers and a scalable platform, Volvo Autonomous Solutions is emerging as one of the most interesting companies in autonomous trucking.
AB Volvo and Aurora Innovation are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Waabi is currently ranked #5 with a neutral outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicles category.
Piquing Our Interest
It’s Time to Rethink the ‘Biggest Budget Wins’ Mentality May Mobility Co-Founder & CEO Edwin Olson highlighted the potential impact that DeepSeek could have on the development of autonomous vehicles in a recent Fortune op-ed.
Uber Opens the Waymo Waitlist in Austin On February 5, Uber opened the Waymo waitlist in Austin, marking a key milestone ahead of their full commercial launch later this year. Waymo will operate exclusively on Uber’s network within a 37-square-mile ODD, reinforcing their commitment to scaling a robotaxi service.
Is Waymo Friend or Foe to Uber? That is the question posed by Eli Tan in a recent The New York Times article. What do you think, is Waymo a friend or foe to Uber?
The Autonomy Narrative is Driving BYD Shares Higher Shares of BYD are trading higher as analysts are predictingthat the company will announce plans to make autonomous-driving technology more affordable next week.
GM Completes Acquisition of Cruise GM completed the acquisition of its shuttered robotaxi unit, Cruise this week, laying off 1,000 employees while they continue to search for a path forward in autonomy.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Waymo is Heading to Nola on a Road Trip
Waymo is bringing its autonomous vehicles to The Big Easy. Starting February 17, Waymo will test around 10 self-driving cars in New Orleans for three weeks. Marking Waymo’s third publicly announced 2025 road trip, following Las Vegas and San Diego.
While in New Orleans, Waymo will continue freeway testing, moving closer to unlocking autonomous highway driving.
Our take: The robotaxi market is Waymo. The company continues to fire on all cylinders as they grow the business and expand/test in new markets.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Autonomous Vehicles, a $1 Trillion Dollar Market Opportunity for Uber?
Uber is going all-in on autonomy, leveraging 15 autonomous vehicle and truck partnerships with more to come—as a key driver of growth for the future.
On February 7, investor Bill Ackman announced on X that Pershing Square Capital Management acquired 30.3 million Uber shares ($2.3 billion stake as of February 7th). In the announcement, Mr. Ackman praised Uber as “one of the best managed and highest quality businesses in the world.”
With strong leadership and a clear autonomy strategy, Uber is well positioned to change the autonomy narrative from an investor overhang to a tailwind.
Our take: Now is the time for Uber to execute their autonomy strategy.
Uber is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Uber is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of February, 3, 2025, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 1.90%, the S&P 500 declined 0.24% and the NASDAQ 100 returned 0.06%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.14% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 1.96%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 3.40%
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Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
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