Introducing Cybercab and Robovan
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles
Tesla’s We Robot event left us wanting more. Tesla has so much going for it, yet it lacks control over its own narrative (outside of the Tesla fan and retail shareholder networks). We Robot was supposed to be Tesla’s shining moment when the company introduced to the world their vision for the future of autonomy and proudly proclaimed the future is autonomous.
While Tesla showcased their vision, it was light on details, practicalities (California autonomous vehicle regulations) and realities. While we do believe what Tesla showcased will become a reality (in some form or another), we do not buy into the timeline or the proposed cost structure.
We believe Tesla will be able to achieve FSD Unsupervised by 2030, not 2025. As it relates to the cost structure of Cybercab, a range of $30,000 – $40,000 is achievable. But will FSD be bundled into that cost or will it be an additional $8,000 at purchase or $99 a month?
Then there is the issue of liability? Who assumes the liability in the event of a crash? Is Cybercab with FSD even insurable? Sergey Litvinenko, Co-Founder & CEO of Koop will be joining us on an upcoming episode of The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the insurance implications of Cybercab.
These are all questions that could have been addressed at the We Robot event. Mr. Musk had the opportunity to paint the picture, share the details and further build confidence in his vision for the future of autonomy.
What Tesla showcased on the Warner Bros. backlot is what SAE International did back in 2019 with Demo Days. We were a part of the SAE Demo Days team and at each event we invited members of the public to ride in autonomous vehicles and learn about the future of autonomy.
While our events were not at the Tesla level in terms of production value, they were right up there and in 2020 we had plans to launch a Demo Day on the Warner Bros. Western Lot. What Tesla did on the main Warner Bros. lot, we dreamed about doing four years earlier.
But, we ultimately pulled the plug as autonomous driving advanced to the point where members of the public wanted (rightfully so) to ride in autonomous vehicles on public roads in mixed traffic. To us, closed course autonomous vehicle demos went the way of the dodo bird in 2019.
If Tesla hosted We Robot in Texas and allowed members of the public to ride in the Cybercabs on public roads in mixed traffic, we would have a different take and the market would have as well.
On the latest episode of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk analyzed Tesla’s We Robot event and how the markets reacted to it.
Pete Bigelow, Senior Reporter, Automotive News joined us on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the current state of the autonomous vehicle industry and what impact Tesla’s Cybercab announcement will have on the industry. The episode will be released on Tuesday.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Introducing Cybercab and Robovan
October 10th on the Warner Bros. backlot in Burbank, CA was an evening full of what is possible. It was an evening that was full of hype and immersive experiences, but light on details. The lack of details sent Tesla’s stock tumbling 8% the following day, as the stock tumbles the hype continues into the weekend and it will continue into the new year.
In an event that started roughly an hour late, Elon Musk was not his typical showman self and we question why Mr. Musk decided to give an opening presentation. Instead it would have been strategic to make each of the “lands” at the We Robot event: New York, TSLA Theatre, Metropolis and West World have their own unique announcements to go along with the interactive experiences.
In New York, Franz von Holzhausen should have unveiled Robovan, explained the design, the influence of New York Central Railroad’s Mercury trains, the functionality and how the Robovan could act as a commercial delivery vehicle.
In TSLA Theatre, screen a movie of Tesla’s forthcoming robotaxi service followed by an interactive Q&A with the audience about the service. After the Q&A, allow the audience members to play with an interactive version of the Tesla robotaxi app on phones in the lobby. Or take it one step further and plus it by enabling the robotaxi app to summon the Cybercab to take you to each land.
Over in Metropolis, create an interactive world that shows how inductive charging and robotic cleaning is going to work with the Cybercab. Share details on the costs, how the infrastructure might need to be updated, when to expect these new services to come online. Will Tesla manage the services or partner with a 3rd party to manage the charging and cleaning?
Then over in West World, home to Optimus and it’s friends, add a robotics presentation by the Optimus team that shares details, timelines and technical protections about Optimus followed by an interactive Q&A.
Mr. Musk could have been the ring leader, popping in and out of lands interacting with guests and sharing his vision for the future of autonomy and Tesla. He could have been P. T. Barnum, keeping the audience engaged and guessing his every move as he set and controlled the narrative for the evening and beyond.
Cybercab was supposed to be the star of the show, but it was not. The star of the show was Optimus. Cybercab was merely the monorail that connected the lands. While an overall impressive event, it left you with a unsatisfied feeling, like you were missing something.
That missing something theme is what Wall Street picked up on as there was was a lot missing details (including, but not limited to):
- No Model 2 (we did not expect this, but a lot of analysts did)
- No Update on the Tesla Robotaxi Network
- No Update on FSD for Semi
Perhaps, Mr. Musk thought to himself, don’t worry there’s always next time…
Our take: We Robot left us wanting more. It was unfortunately a major missed opportunity to share the Tesla roadmap with details. As daily Tesla drivers with FSD Supervised engaged 95%+ of the time, we experience Tesla’s self-driving progress everyday and it’s getting very very good. Unfortunately, we just can’t shake the feeling of feeling that something was missing from We Robot.
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicle category.
Tesla is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Trump to Ban Chinese Autonomous Vehicles?
In a speech at the Detroit Economic Club on October 10th, President Trump said he would ban Chinese cars and autonomous vehicles in America.
I will continue my first-term efforts to protect America from the threat of Chinese automobiles. I will stop Chinese and other countries producing automobiles and autonomous vehicles.
– President Trump in a speech at the Detroit Economic Club on October 10, 2024
As President Trump looks to continue his America First agenda if re-elected President on Tuesday, November 5th, we would encourage President Trump to expand his autonomous vehicle agenda to include a national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks weighing over 10,001 pounds.
It’s one thing to ban Chinese manufactured vehicles and autonomous vehicles in America, it is another to create a policy that will enable the U.S. autonomous vehicle and truck industries to scale and prosper, while creating new high-paying jobs.
As President Trump and his economic advisors know well, job creation is good for the economy. Autonomy will create jobs, autonomy is good for the economy. America should be the first country in the world to usher in the autonomy economy.
It’s time for America to learn from the mistakes of chip manufacturing, the electric vehicle component supply chain and put in place policies that will enable a homegrown technology (autonomy) to scale and prosper in America.
To achieve economic growth from autonomy, America needs a national autonomous vehicle and truck framework. Put a framework in place and America will usher in the autonomy economy. The autonomy economy will grow the U.S. economy.
Our take: As James Carville famously said in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid”.
Tim Kentley Klay Is Back in Autonomy, Announces HYPR
In the hours before the launch of the Tesla’s Cybercab, Tim Kentley Klay, Co-Founder of Zoox announced he is back in autonomy with a new company called HYPR. The design of the HYPR robotaxi concept is a radical design and technical change from the approach Mr. Kentley Klay took at Zoox.
This time, there is no LiDAR, no carriage (toaster) design and no ability to transport four passengers. Instead it’s camera + high-definition radar sensor suite with a sleek forward-facing design that is only capable of transporting two passengers at a time.
Our take: Two passenger robotaxis are becoming a trend. First it was Verne, then it was HYPR and now it’s Cybercab. Who’s next to join the two passenger party?
Zoox parent Amazon is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Piquing Our Interest
China’s Autonomous Vehicle Market is Growing Significantly In China, 32,000 kilometers (19,800 miles) of roads have been approved for autonomous vehicle testing. 16,000 autonomous vehicle test licensees have been issued in the country and testing is currently occurring in at least 19 cities. In a recent report, S&P Global Mobility detailed China’s accelerated autonomous vehicle developments.
Baidu Looks to Expand Robotaxis Internationally Baidu is currently exploring opportunities to expand their Apollo Go robotaxi service outside of China. The company is currently looking at Hong Kong, Singapore and the Middle East. If Baidu launches in the UAE, they will be the second Chinese company to offer a robotaxi service in the emirates behind WeRide. Could an Uber partnership be next?
Uber’s Autonomy Margins Will Take Years To Achieve In an interview with Bloomberg, Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said; “While the margins on autonomous will be lower than non-autonomous in the early years, we think long-term, it can be great for business and it can be great for society.” Mr. Khosrowshahi is properly setting exceptions as investors pile into Uber, chasing Uber’s potential expanding margins as autonomous vehicles (and trucks) begin to come online on the platform.
Teleo is Expanding into Forestry and Logging Teleo is expanding into forestry and logging with the company securing orders for 34 machines from nine new customers. Teleo is taking a supervised autonomy approach to deploying autonomy in heavy equipment industries. It’s an approach that solves the growing labor shortage issue in heavy industries, while enhancing safety on the job site.
Taking to The Skies and Knocking Out Enemies Autonomously Anduril has introduced an autonomous drone called Bolt that is capable of autonomously striking and taking out an enemy target.
Social Buzz
Are The Markets Confused about Tesla?
On 10/10, Tesla delivered a show that would have impressed Walt Disney. While Mr. Disney would have been impressed, Wall Street was not. Tesla’s stock traded down over 8% the next day as Wall Street and a majority of analysts failed to grasp what happened.
Tesla put on a Disneyesque show that was heavy on emotions and imagination, but light on details. Mr. Musk’s presentation was a little under 20 minutes with little to no details outside of the Cybercab costing around $30,000 (is this his favorite number?) and deliveries beginning in 2027.
Light details unfortunately don’t cut it on Wall Street. While Mr. Musk failed to deliver to Wall Street, he did deliver. He made us all wonder what is possible when you dream, imagine and build.
Our take: Tesla missed a major opportunity by not keeping the We Robot “set” up for two weeks, selling tickets and inviting the public to experience Tesla’s vision of the future for a limited two week run. It could have been an only in Hollywood moment powered by Tesla.
Tesla is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Autonomous Mowers are on the PGA Tour
FireFly Automatix’s autonomous mowers are now on the PGA Tour. This weekend’s Black Desert Championship in Southern Utah is the first PGA Tour Championship in tour history to have the grass mowed by autonomous mowers.
Our take: Speaking with several golf pros, we expect FireFly Automatix’s autonomous mowers to scale to more courses, both public private, including more PGA tournaments. Next will autonomous mowers come to the LIV Golf Tour?
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of October 7th, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 1.46%, the S&P 500 returned 1.11% and the NASDAQ 100 returned 1.18%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.35% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.28%.
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Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
Ford Slashes BlueCruise Price, GM vs Tesla and the Coveted Costco Partnership
David Welch, Detroit Bureau Chief, Bloomberg joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss Ford’s BlueCruise price cut and GM’s burgeoning competition with Tesla for personally owned autonomous vehicles.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Tuesday, October 8, 2024
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Tesla’s 10/10 We Robot Event, Waymo’s Austin Launch, and Zoox’s New Vegas Partnership
Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla’s highly anticipated 10/10 We Robot event and what could be announced. Could Optimus have a friend? Could Tesla introduce Full Self-Driving (Supervised) for Tesla Semi? Will the robotaxi be a two passenger vehicle? There are lots of questions that will be answered next week live on the Warner Bros. backlot in Burbank, CA.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Sunday, October 6, 2024
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
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