Wayve Catches a Billion Dollar Wave
May 12, 2024
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 0.30%, Wayve raised a billion dollars in a Series C round lead by SoftBank with participation from Microsoft and NVIDIA, Motional’s plans for commercialization were put on hold and Daimler Truck introduced an autonomous battery electric Freightliner eCascadia.
Waymo announced the company is now conducting 50,000 paid trips per week in three cities. We estimate that Waymo is now generating anywhere between $500,000 to just over a $1,000,000 a week in revenue depending on the average fare.
Waymo is becoming a business and trying out a new sensor suite in Austin, Buffalo and San Francisco. Could this new sensor suite have better unit economics than previous sensor suites? Only time will tell, but as Waymo ramps up commercial operations the company will need to begin focusing on unit economics.
Autonomy is a business and soon it will become an economy, an economy that we call the autonomy economy.
A few updates from us. We are proud to announce that Koop Insurance is the new presenting sponsor for This Week in The Autonomy Economy. We are excited to have Koop onboard as the premier sponsor (Thank you, Sergey!).
Other sponsorship opportunities are still available. If you are interested in sponsorship opportunities, please kindly send an email to ads (at) roadtoautonomy.com.
Additionally, we have added a new section to the newsletter called Autonomy Avenue Whispers. As the whispers on Autonomy Avenue occur, we will share the intrigue with you. Can you connect the dots and decipher the whisper?
Daimler Truck, Waymo parent Alphabet, Wayve investors Microsoft and NVIDIA are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
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Autonomy Avenue Whispers
There are whispers abound on Autonomy Avenue that a once thriving autonomous driving developer is in the midst of a major pivot. This firm was rumored to have been in the process of being sold in Q1, but we can confirm this was merely just a rumor and not a whisper.
What’s Moving the Markets
Wayve Catches a Billion Dollar Wave
On May 7th, Wayve announced they caught a billion dollar wave. A few months earlier down in Praia do Norte in Nazaré, Portugal, big wave surfer Lucas ‘Chumbo’ Chianca caught the world’s biggest wave which measured an estimated 100 feet.
It’s been a year of records in the UK and Europe. The biggest wave in history was surfed in Portugal and Wayve raised the largest amount of capital in history for a UK/Europe based AI company.
Wayve’s Series C funding will enable the company to accelerate the development of their end-to-end AI solution for autonomous driving they call Embodied AI.
To learn more about their Embodied AI approach to autonomous driving, we would recommend reading The Road to Embodied AI by Wayve Co-Founder & CEO, Alex Kendall.
It’s time to go catch a wave with Wayve. We are bullish on the company and believe they have an extremely bright future. Wayve along with Tesla could upend the entire autonomous vehicle industry as their approach is lightweight, scalable and licensable.
If you are interested in learning more about Wayve, we would recommend the following podcast:
- AV 2.0, Wayve’s Approach to Autonomous Driving, A Conversation with Alex Kendall, Co-Founder & CEO, Wayve (March 26, 2024)
Our take: Wayve is catching the wave at the perfect moment.
Wayve investors Microsoft and NVIDIA are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Motional, Delayed Again. This Time with Bigger Questions than Answers
During an all-hands meeting on Tuesday, May 7th, Motional announced wide-ranging layoffs. Additionally, the company will be pausing their limited commercial operations. These unfortunate layoffs and the pausing of commercial operations comes as no surprise to us, as this something that we have been forecasting for several months.
While the details are vague about how wide the layoffs are, we are hearing they are significant and will impact day-to-day operations. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported the company is laying off 145 employees (roughly 50%) in Pittsburgh according to a WARN notice citing “business conditions”.
Unfortunately the writing is on the wall for Motional and it’s not good. The company will not survive as an independent developer and operator of robotaxis. The paths forward for the company are limited, but there is one path that makes strategic sense for both Motional and their largest investor Hyundai — a merger with Genesis.
We have been suggesting this is the best path forward for a while now and we remain committed to that strategy. We would advise Hyundai to merge Motional’s remaining assets into the Genesis division.
In the Genesis division, Motional could embark on a dual-mandate. Continue to develop an SAE Level 4 autonomous driving system, while starting the development of an SAE Level 3 system to directly compete with Mercedes-Benz DRIVE PILOT.
The merger would give Hyundai a clear path to develop personally owned autonomous vehicles. If Hyundai opts not to pursue a personally owned autonomous vehicle strategy over the long-term, they could eventually spin-out a leaner Motional as an autonomous driving licensing company.
Our take: A merger gives Hyundai options. No merger and Motional will run out of options. What decision will Chung Eui-sun ultimately make? The future of Motional and Hyundai’s long-term autonomous vehicle ambitions hang in the balance.
Motional investor Aptiv The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Electric and Autonomous
Daimler Truck is making all the right moves as the company prepares for an autonomous future. To prepare for that future, Daimler is now embracing a dual-mandate of electrification and autonomy. Until this point, Daimler Truck did not combine those efforts into a single product.
That all changed on May 8th, when Daimler Truck introduced an autonomous battery electric Freightliner eCascadia. It was a wise strategic move and one that further re-enforces Daimler’s leadership position as both a commercial vehicle manufacturer and a developer of autonomous trucking technology.
When a fleet ultimately decides to integrate autonomous battery electric Freightliner eCascadias into their operations, they will benefit from the economics of autonomy.
Brett Suma, Founder & CEO of Loadsmith recently explained the economics of operating an electric class-8 truck with and without autonomy in a recent The Road to Autonomy YouTube Short.
If you are interested in learning more about Daimler Truck and their autonomous trucking plans, we would recommend the following podcast:
- Developing the Autonomous-Ready Truck Platform, A Conversation with Joanna Buttler, Head of the Global Autonomous Technology Group, Daimler Truck North America (January 9, 2024)
Our take: Keep your eyes on Daimler Truck, as they are merely just getting started on their autonomous journey.
Daimler Truck AG is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Mandate and Require LiDAR?
That debate is currently taking place in the industry, as the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) finalized a new Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard that will make automatic emergency braking (AEB), including pedestrian AEB, standard on all passenger cars and light trucks by September 2029.
But do you need LiDAR to meet this new regulation? This is up for debate. However, companies are seizing on the opportunity to grow their businesses. LiDAR developer Luminar called the regulation a “massive regulatory tailwind” and the #1 key driver for their business.
While NHTSA regulations dictate performance rather than technologies, we think these rules will be difficult to achieve without LiDAR. And as we discussed at Luminar Day, while the broader autonomous vehicle industry faces regulatory headwinds, this is but one more tailwind for Luminar.
– Luminar Q1 2024 Business Update
But is it really a tailwind? Shai Shalev-Shwartz, CTO of Mobileye seems to agree with Luminar’s tailwind theory, as he posted the following on X:
Is someone lobbying behind the scenes to mandate LiDAR? If they are, we question the motive as the consumer will end up suffering from increased costs in an inflationary environment.
Then there is the technical aspect, could the AEB regulation be achieved with radar/4D imaging radar? We believe so. Not to mention both Bosch and Continental currently have an automatic emergency braking products on the market today that utilize radar.
Our take: The free market should decide the path forward, not lobbyists with an agenda. Let the best solution win. When the best solution wins, the consumer wins. When the consumer wins, the economy wins.
Social Buzz
Supervised Autonomy Paving the Way
Teleo has partnered with Ajax Paving in Florida to deploy Caterpillar 966XE wheel loaders with Teleo Supervised Autonomy. By deploying Teleo’s supervised autonomy technology, Ajax Paving will be able to optimize their operations without the economic consequences of having to rely on an unpredictable labor market.
According to the Associated General Contractors of America, 91% of construction firms are having a hard time finding workers to hire.
Construction workforce shortages are severe and having a significant impact on construction firms of all types, all sizes and all labor arrangements,. These workforce shortages are compounding the challenges firms are having with supply chain disruptions that are inflating the cost of construction materials and making delivery schedules and product availability uncertain.
– Ken Simonson, Chief Economist, Associated General Contractors of America
Autonomy solves the unpredictable labor market predicament and gives companies operational and economic stability in their operations.
If you are interested in learning more about Teleo and their approach to autonomy, we would recommend the following podcast:
- Supervised Autonomy: Increasing Efficiency in a Labor Light Economy, A Conversation with Vinay Shet, Co-Founder & CEO, Teleo (October 24, 2023)
Our take: Autonomy is not just for cars or trucks, it’s for everything. As autonomy scales in the construction sector, a tremendous amount of economic value will be unlocked.
50,000 Paid Trips a Week and Counting
On May 9th, Waymo announced the company is now conducting 50,000 paid rides per week in three cities. This is a historic number as this volume has never been achieved before in the autonomous vehicle industry. We are at the dawn of a new era in autonomy, the business era.
We have estimated Waymo is generating anywhere between $500,000 to just over a $1,000,000 a week in revenue depending on the average fare.
Factor in two more cities/expansions and Waymo will be generating north of $100 million a year. How long do you think it will take for Waymo to achieve $100 million a year in revenue? Let us know by replying to this tweet on X or replying to this email. We would love to hear your thoughts.
Our take: Waymo is now a business. While Waymo is a business, the question still remains as to what are the unit economic costs of a Waymo vehicle. We are still waiting for Ruth Porat to disclose Waymo’s economic metrics.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
A New Waymo Sensor Suite?
A Waymo vehicle was spotted in Austin, Texas earlier this week with a new sensor suite. Could this be the next generation hardware suite for Waymo? Or is this merely just a test vehicle? Additional Waymo vehicles with this new sensor suite have been spotted in San Francisco and Buffalo, New York.
Our take: As Waymo ramps up commercial operations, margins are going to come into the picture sooner rather than later. A business runs on profits and loss. Waymo is going to have to eventually stand on their own as a business without Alphabet subsidizing their operations. To do this, Waymo has to lower the cost of their hardware suite without losing any performance.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of May 6th, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 0.30%, the S&P 500 returned 1.85% and the NASDAQ 100 returned 1.51%. The Road to Autonomy Index underperformed the S&P 500 by 2.15% and underperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 1.81%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 9.71%
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The Road to Autonomy & Autonomy Economy Podcasts
The Road to Autonomy podcast features unconventional conversations about the future of mobility and the `Autonomy Economy features an insider’s perspective on the economics of autonomy. New episodes every Tuesday and Wednesday.
Insights into the Commercialization of Autonomous Driving
David Welch, Detroit Bureau Chief, Bloomberg joined The Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss the commercialization of autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks.
Listen on The Road to Autonomy | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | YouTube Music
Friday, May 3, 2024
Navigating Policy and Labor Challenges in The Autonomy Economy
Finch Fulton, Government Affairs and Policy Advisor, K&L Gates joined The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the policy and labor challenges currently facing the emerging autonomy economy.
Listen on The Road to Autonomy | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | YouTube Music
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Texas Oil & Gas Fuels Economic Growth Amid Global Energy Challenges
Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil & Gas Association The Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss the pivotal role the oil and gas plays in the global economy.
Listen on The Road to Autonomy | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | YouTube Music
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Autonomy Insights
Autonomy Insights keeps you ahead of the trends and influences that are shaping the future of the autonomy economy. New episodes every Monday.
Tesla to Disrupt Auto Insurance with Self-Driving Cars
Could Tesla disrupt the $362 billion dollar U.S. auto insurance market? It’s possible as Tesla is aiming to disrupt the auto insurance industry by scaling Tesla’s with FSD Supervised and bundling it with their own insurance product.
Sergey Litvinenko, CEO of Koop, an insurance tech startup joined The Road to Autonomy Founder Grayson Brulte to discuss how skyrocketing insurance costs are driving more consumers to consider alternatives like autonomous vehicles and mobility services.
Watch on X | YouTube | LinkedIn
Monday, May 6, 2024
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
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