Autonomous Vehicles, A Multi-Trillion Dollar Industry
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 0.22%, Jensen Huang declared that autonomous vehicles will become a multi-trillion-dollar industry at CES, Aurora stood up to tyranny and Deere doubled down on autonomy.
The buzz leading into CES this year from an autonomy perspective was subdued, but that all changed when Jensen Huang declared during his keynote that autonomous vehicles will become the first multi-trillion-dollar robotics industry.
To achieve this financial milestone, a sensible approach to autonomous vehicle and truck regulation is needed. While a national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks weighing over 10,001 pounds would be nice, it is not necessary for autonomy to scale in America.
What is necessary though is a practical approach to regulation that is not grounded in political ideology and brinksmanship. The last four years under the Biden administration have been treacherous for autonomous vehicle and truck regulations.
On Friday, the industry fought back when Aurora stood up and filed a petition in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals challenging the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) ruling that denied both Aurora and Waymo the warning triangle exemption.
In their filing, Aurora hit hard and called out FMCSA for their blatant political maneuvering by stating in the petition that the FMCSA’s decision stifles safety innovation and would impede the development of the autonomous trucking industry for no valid or lawful reason.
No valid or lawful reason. All FMCSA did was give a political reason that was buried in bureaucratic language. Aurora nailed it and hopefully the court agrees with their petition and the Trump DOT grants Aurora their exemption.
While Aurora fights the good fight, Deere continues to double down on autonomy. At CES, the company unveiled a new autonomous tractor, lawn mover, dump truck and an autonomous tractor specifically designed for orchards. Why? The farmer shortage.
Farmers are struggling with labor and autonomy fixes that issue. Autonomy enables the family farm to stay in the family. Deere clearly understands what their customers— farmers want and its autonomy.
Autonomy is good for the economy. Autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Autonomy is a positive, not a negative and this is one reason why we created the Council for Economic Resilience. The Council for Economic Resilience is going to promote the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.
If you happen to be in D.C. next week, we still have a few spaces available for Cocktails, Autonomy and Advocacy. Send us an email if you are interested and we will share an invitation with you.
Next Sunday, we will be publishing the January 2025 AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD update in a special edition of this newsletter.
We are very much looking forward to seeing everyone in D.C. next week.
Aurora Innovation, Deere and NVIDIA, Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
What’s Moving the Markets
Autonomous Vehicles Will Be a Multi-Trillion Dollar Industry
Jensen Huang threw down the gauntlet at CES during his keynote when he declared autonomous vehicles “will be the first multitrillion-dollar robotics industry”. Not only will autonomous vehicles become a multitrillion-dollar industry, they will become one of the anchors of the emerging autonomy economy.
Who ultimately wins and takes a large portion of the pie has yet to be determined, but there are signs of who is emerging to take significant marketshare. As of now, the two companies that are best positioned to benefit from the growth of autonomous vehicles are Alphabet (Waymo) and Tesla.
Both companies have the capital, strategy and technology to scale an autonomous vehicle business. Alphabet’s Waymo is the clear leader today in robotaxis today and Tesla is the clear winner in the race to develop personally owned autonomous vehicles.
Once Tesla “cracks” full self-driving and commercializes the Cybercab, things will get interesting for Waymo. Waymo will then have a choice to make. Do they continue to own the asset (robotaxi) on their balance sheet, or do they partner with an asset owner?
Walter Piecyk often says on Autonomy Markets that a market for autonomous vehicle REITs could emerge if AV REITs were taxed in a similar fashion to traditional REITs.
Tesla does not have to worry about these potential tax changes and the implications of an AV REIT, because they are not going to own the asset (Cybercab). The consumer along with fleet owners are going to own the asset.
Waymo owns the asset today, could that change in the future if Tesla’s model proves to be commercially successful? If Waymo offloaded the asset to an AV REIT, would Waymo garner a higher valuation?
If Waymo did indeed follow through and offload the asset to an AV REIT, that would validate the Wayve model and the new Nuro model—licensing. Both Wayve and Nuro are developing a “driver”. They are not going to own, build or manage the asset, they are simply going to profit from it.
This year, a truly profitable business model should emerge and Waymo should surpass 300,000 paid trips and 2 million fully autonomous miles every week.
Our take: The future is bright. The future is autonomous. The future is a multi-trillion-dollar industry.
NVIDIA, Tesla and Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally-owned autonomous vehicles category.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicles category.
Advocating For The Autonomy Economy | Sponsored
Automation and autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Council for Economic Resilience is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.
Get Engaged, Learn More visit CNFER.org
Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group that is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American people.
Aurora Stands Up To Tyranny
This week, Aurora took a stand for the entire autonomous trucking industry and stood up to unjust political tyranny. On January 10th, Aurora filed a petition in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals challenging the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) ruling that denied both Aurora and Waymo a warning triangle exemption.
After sitting on the warning triangle exemption issue for almost two years, FMCSA denied Aurora and Waymo’s exemption on December 26th. The denial was purely a political maneuver designed to blunt the growth of the autonomous trucking industry.
It didn’t work and FMCSA’s political maneuvering was called out for all to see in Aurora’s petition to the court.
FMCSA’s decision stifles safety innovation and would impede the development of the autonomous trucking industry for no valid or lawful reason.
– Aurora Court Petition (January 10, 2025)
Why play politics with an industry that is going to be one of the anchors of the autonomy economy? Because that is what certain special interests wanted FMCSA to do and they did it. The good news is that those days are coming to an end in eight days, when President-elect Trump is sworn in office.
Soon we will have a new FMCSA Administrator and autonomous trucks will be able to scale without having to comply with outdated regulations from the 1970’s. When this happens, autonomous trucks will be able to scale on the roads of America, creating jobs, increasing supply chain resilience and having an overall positive impact on the U.S. economy.
Our take: Today is a good day for the autonomous trucking industry. The industry owes Aurora a debt of gratitude for their bold move to challenge the status quo.
Aurora Innovation is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Aurora is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucks category.
Piquing Our Interest
Is Waymo Hedging Their Zeekr Bet? That appears to be the case now. At CTA’s Leaders in Technology Dinner this week, Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said Waymo is monitoring the China risk, while stressing the importance of their multi-partnership strategy during her talk with Ed Ludlow of Bloomberg. Is the end of the Waymo Zeekr robotaxi near?
Suspect Tries to Use Waymo as a Getaway Car In an only in LA moment, a suspect who robbed a grocery store, opened the Waymo app, ordered a getaway car and tried to getaway. The suspect didn’t get far as the Waymo pulled over when it identified the flashing lights of the police car.
Uber and NVIDIA to Collaborate on Autonomous Driving As Uber continues to search for its robotaxi narrative, the company continues to rack up autonomy partnerships—this time a partnership with NVIDIA. As part of the partnership, Uber paired its vast dataset with the NVIDIA Cosmos platform and Nvidia’s DGX operating system to help autonomous driving companies accelerate development.
NVIDIA to Power Toyota’s Next-Gen Autonomous Vehicles While the details are few and far between on NVIDIA’s and Toyota’s partnership, it is becoming very clear that NVIDIA views autonomous vehicles as a growth market.
May Mobility is Developing an Autonomous Minibus At CES, May Mobility introduced an autonomous minibus in partnership with Tecnobus. The bus will be able to hold 30 passengers and travel at speeds up to 45 mph.
Lawmakers Should Embrace Autonomous Vehicles, Not Kneecap Them In Washington State, lawmakers are getting ready to debate a driver-in bill that will require a driver in an autonomous vehicle at all times. Not only is Senate Bill 5402 a bad bill, it is an economic destruction bill. If passed and signed into law, SB 5402 would harm Washington’s economy, Washington would be at a long-term economic disadvantage.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
NVIDIA, Powering Autonomous Trucks
Chris Urmson, Co-Founder & CEO of Aurora joined CNBC on January 10th where he discussed the company’s new partnership with NVIDIA. The deal which was announced at CES, sent Aurora’s shares soaring 35% on the news.
Our take: NVIDIA is powering the autonomy economy.
Aurora Innovation and NVIDIA are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Deere Doubles Down on Autonomy
At CES this week John Deere doubled down on autonomy when they introduced a new autonomous tractor, lawn mover, dump truck and an autonomous tractor specifically designed for orchards.
This is a clear signal that the off-road autonomy market is beginning to take shape. If you are exploring the market from a business perspective, we would highly recommend reaching out to our good friend Sam Abidi. Mr. Abidi is one of the smartest and kindest individuals who we know in the off-road autonomy market.
If you are interested in learning more about Deere’s approach to autonomy, we would recommend the following podcast: Nothing Runs Like an Autonomous Deere: Increasing Efficiency on Farms, a conversation with Aaron Ticknor, Product Manager, Large Ag Autonomy, John Deere (May 22, 2024).
Our take: Nothing runs like an Autonomous Deere.
Deere & Co is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of January 6th, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 0.22%, the S&P 500 declined 0.71% and the NASDAQ 100 declined 0.61%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.49% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.39%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has declined 0.03%
Follow The Road to Autonomy Index on Apple Stocks | Google Finance
The Road to Autonomy Index Component Companies
For more information on The Road to Autonomy Index and to learn about licensing and marketing opportunities, please email hello@roadtoautonomy.com
Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
Inside AllianceTexas Smart Port: How Texas is Building the Future of Autonomous Freight & Supply Chains
Michael Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) and Nick Konen, Director of Strategic Development, Hillwood joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how Texas is building the future of autonomous freight and supply chains.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Tuesday, January 7, 2025
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
CES 2025, Rethinking LiDAR, The Dilemma Facing Uber and Legacy OEMs
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss how the momentum has shifted in the autonomous vehicle and truck industries after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang declared it will become the first multi-trillion dollar robotics industry at CES 2025.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Saturday, January 11, 2025
Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
Inclusion of a security within The Road to Autonomy Index® is not a recommendation by The Road to Autonomy Indices LLC to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.
