Waymo: 200k Paid Rides a Week and Counting
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 1.26%, Waymo surpassed 200,00 weekly paid rides, Tesla is preparing to launch a robotaxi service in California and NVIDIA’s automotive and robotics revenue grew 103% year-over-year driven by sales of self-driving platforms.
NVIDIA has been the engine powering autonomy since the earliest days of the industry, and now the company is finally beginning to capitalize on their long-term investment in autonomous driving platforms.
Fiscal year 2025 was the second fiscal year in a row that NVIDIA surpassed $1 billion in automotive and robotics revenue. While this is an impressive metric, competition is emerging to challenge NVIDIA’s dominance in autonomous driving chips.
When NVIDIA’s dominance begins to dissipate is anyone’s guess, but at some point their dominance will be curtailed. Newer faster, energy-efficient chips will be developed and commercialized for autonomous driving.
As autonomy grows and achieves significant revenues, we expect to see the leading autonomous driving companies begin a process of moving away from NVIDIA and developing their own chips. At some point, autonomy is going to become vertically integrated and when this happens, would NVIDIA counter by buying an autonomous driving company? Perhaps Nuro or Wayve?
On a previous episode of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discussed the likelihood of NVIDIA making an autonomous driving acquisition and what that impact would be on the market. (Video is below, if you are interested in watching it)
The autonomy economy is emerging and with any emerging autonomy economy, there is always change. 2025 is going to be a big year for autonomy.
NVIDIA, Tesla and Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
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What’s Moving the Markets
200k+ Paid Rides a Week and Counting
Over the last two years, Waymo’s paid weekly rides have increased 20% to over 200,000. As Waymo continues expanding into new markets, we will be closely watching the company’s growth trajectory. If the current trend holds, Waymo may be entering its hockey stick phase of growth.
When Austin, Atlanta and Miami come online, things will get really interesting as Waymo will then be operating a robotaxi service at scale in six major markets. Which raises the question; How many markets and weekly riders does Waymo need to reach profitability?
As it’s only a matter of time until Waymo achieves profitably. When the profitably metric is achieved, what does Alphabet do? There is ongoing speculation about Alphabet spinning-off Waymo, but why? What does that achieve?
Yes, it could unlock shareholder value, but you can make the same argument for YouTube. At the end of the day, we view Waymo as a core component of Alphabet.
Our take: Google took a chance when they spun-up and funded Project Chauffeur. Soon they will be rewarded for their long-term steadfast commitment to autonomous vehicles.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component companyWaymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
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Tesla Prepares to Launch a Robotaxi Service in California
Bloomberg reported this week that Tesla has applied for a transportation charter-party carrier permit from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). If approved, Tesla could operate a ride-hailing service in the state. The big caveats?
Tesla would own and operate the vehicles, and safety drivers would be required—at least for now. Tesla owners would not be able to put their personal vehicles on the network, raising an important question: Does this complicate Tesla’s long-term vision of an Airbnb-like service for cars? Or is it a strategic move to build public support for a national autonomous vehicle framework?
With Elon Musk and Tesla, you never really know. If this is a step toward laying the groundwork for a Tesla robotaxi network, one where individual owners can earn money from their vehicles, then it’s a savvy move. This comes at a time when U.S. consumers are financially strained, giving Mr. Musk the opportunity to position Tesla as a solution:
Buy a Tesla, make enough money to cover your lease, insurance, and even chip away at your credit card debt.
It’s a compelling economic pitch as U.S. households are strapped with $17.50 trillion of debt (inducing mortgage). Any extra income a consumer can earn, especially in this economic environment where credit card and auto loan delinquencies have surpassed pre-pandemic levels would be a blessing.
The deteriorating financial health of the U.S. consumer is creating an opportunity for Mr. Musk to hammer home an economic message of hope. Buy a Tesla, make enough money to pay your monthly lease payment, insurance and chip away at your credit card debt. If California were to block Tesla’s ambitious plan, the narrative would write itself:
California is preventing citizens from making money with the car they already own. California stops citizens from paying down their debt. California stops citizens from becoming debt free.
The public backlash would be swift and this maneuvering would vault Tesla into a league of its own—a car company that makes you money and helps you pay down your debt.
If you own a house, you can rent it. Why not a car? It would be a winning message and one that would be massively amplified on X and a remark from the President would further amplify it.
Even if this is not Tesla’s strategy, it’s another clear indicator that Mr. Musk is betting the future of Tesla on autonomy. It’s a bet that we believe will work out well for both Tesla and Tesla shareholders over the long-term.
If you doubt Mr. Musk can pull it off, we challenge you to research the history of SpaceX and to spend a significant amount of time playing with Grok 3. xAI’s Grok 3 has changed the AI market in under 2 years. Overtime xAI has the ability to redefine industries.
Add real-time market data to Grok and say goodbye to the Bloomberg Terminal ($32,000 a year with a two year contract—$64,000), if someone builds a new messaging service for Wall Street that everyone adapts. Perhaps, an xAI model for financial services emerges in the future?
No matter what happens, AI and autonomy are going to change the world in ways that we have yet to imagine. The winners of today will not necessarily be the winners of tomorrow.
Business models will change, and there is a very bright future for personally owned autonomous vehicles that become revenue generating assets. As Autonomy Markets co-host Walter Piecyk always says; “the technology just has to work”.
SpaceX proved it works with rockets and connectivity, xAI proved it works with Grok. Now, Tesla has to prove that unsupervised FSD (full self-driving) works. Perhaps this is the first step to proving Tesla’s autonomous driving technology works. Or perhaps, it’s a masterclass in strategy. Either way, we will soon find out.
Our take: It is only a matter of time until Tesla proves it with unsupervised FSD. When that time is, we are unsure. However, we are sure that they will prove it.
Tesla is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicle category.
Piquing Our Interest
NVIDIA’s Automotive & Robotics Revenue Skyrockets NVIDIA’s automotive and robotics revenue grew 103% year-over-year driven by sales of self-driving platforms.
Amazon is Betting Big On Autonomy Amazon is projected to invest $25 billion this year in autonomy and automation for its logistics network as part of an effort to reduce costs.
Waymo Continues to Test Zeekr Robotaxis in San Francisco In what we see as an unforced error, Waymo continues to drive ahead with its Zeekr robotaxi plans. The vehicle was recently spotted testing in San Francisco with a safety driver onboard.
The Emergence of the Waymo Power User One Waymo power user in San Francisco has taken 686 rides since November 2023, spending a total of $14,000—an average of $933 per month on Waymo.
Deputy Secretary of Transportation Nominee Bradbury Supports Autonomous Vehicles In a written response to Senator Young of Indiana, Mr. Steven Bradbury voiced his support for autonomous vehicles and the need for a national autonomous vehicle framework.
David Hall Launches a Comeback David Hall, Founder of Velodyne LiDAR is back! Mr. Hall has launched a new LiDAR company—HLi.
Tesla Launches FSD (Supervised in China) This week Tesla rolled out an over-the-air software update that enabled FSD (Supervised) in China.
China’s Regulatory Roadblock: OTA Updates for Autonomous Driving Require Approval Here comes big brother or in this case, the CCP. It was only a matter of time before data-sharing with the authorities became mandatory in China. Now, all autonomous driving-related over-the-air software upgrades must receive regulatory approval.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
59 Cities and Counting
To enhance their autonomous driving AI models, Nuro continues to collect data across a diverse range of conditions and locations throughout the United States.
Our take: Nuro’s extensive data collection signals the company’s progress toward launching a licensing business with an OEM partner.
Nuro is currently ranked #1 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the licensing category.
Avride Expands to Tokyo
Avride packed their bags and headed to Tokyo. This week, Avride began delivering restaurant orders and groceries in partnership with Rakuten in the Harumi, Kachidoki and Tsukishima neighborhoods in central Tokyo.
Our take: The global market opportunity for autonomous delivery bots remains uncertain, and it’s unclear if the sector will fully mature. However, we’re keeping a close watch on it, as it could emerge as a key sector in the autonomy economy.
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of February 24, 2025, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 1.26%, the S&P 500 declined 0.97% and the NASDAQ 100 declined 3.38%. The Road to Autonomy Index underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.29% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 2.12%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 2.32%
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Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
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Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
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Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
Inclusion of a security within The Road to Autonomy Index® is not a recommendation by The Road to Autonomy Indices LLC to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.
