Autonomy Leaderboard Q1 2025 Update
is Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 4.09%, the Q1 2025 AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD update was released, Congressman Sean Duffy had his Senate Confirmation hearing for Transportation Secretary and The Council for Economic Resilience hosted Cocktails, Autonomy and Advocacy with very special guest Secretary Elaine Chao.
Cocktails, Autonomy and Advocacy hosted by The Council for Economic Resilience was full of great conversations and optimism about the future of autonomy and it’s impact on the economy. Building upon the success of the event, Cocktails, Autonomy and Advocacy will be hosted on a regular cadence beginning with the Spring edition. Stay tuned for more details.
Thank you to Sean Rushton of Shadowlawn Communications and Ariel Wolf of Venable for all of your assistance in making the event a huge success and thank you to everyone who attended.
With the right policies in place the companies that are developing autonomy can prosper. Today we released the Q1 2025 AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD update with quite a few changes and new additions to the leaderboard. Bot Auto, Plus and Nuro all joined the leaderboard for the first time, while Cruise was removed.
This quarter we also introduced the licensing category as the market for licensing autonomous driving stacks is beginning to emerge. A lot of change is on the horizon and that change starts tomorrow when Donald J. Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States of America.
Could President Trump usher in the autonomy economy by signing into law a national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks weighing trucks over 10,001 pounds? We are optimistic as we are at the dawn of the golden age of autonomy.
Now we just need the right policies to be enacted. Enact the right polices and the autonomy economy will bloom and prosper in America benefiting every single citizen.
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What’s Moving the Markets
AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD Q1 2025 Update
A lot has changed in the autonomy markets since the Q4 2024 AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD update. Since then GM has decided to shut down Cruise, while the licensing business model began to emerge with Wayve and Nuro leading the pack.
Tesla is currently exploring the licensing business as well as the company has publicly stated that they are in talks with an OEM to license Full Self-Driving (FSD). While there are talks, we have yet to see any evidence to determine how the Tesla licensing terms will work, what the economics of a potential deal will look like and who will ultimately be responsible in the event of a crash if FSD is engaged on a non-Tesla vehicle.
At some-point, those details will emerge along with a potential OEM announcement. But until then, we remain neutral on whether Tesla will ultimately license FSD to another automaker.
This quarter we are introducing a new category for the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD—Licensing. Wayve has earned the top spot with a bullish outlook, followed by Nuro at #2 with a positive outlook. We remain fully confident in Wayve’s business model and Alex Kendall’s leadership as CEO.
Nuro has come a long way since the company was founded in 2016. We applaud their pivot to licensing as we believe that this is the right path forward for the company. Nuro earned a positive outlook because of the strength of their autonomous driving stack.
However, we do have some concerns about how long their financial runway currently is, but we believe that the market for autonomous driving investment is beginning to open and that Nuro will be able to tap the market.
As the market opens, we expect several autonomy companies to tap it and raise hundreds of millions of dollars as the investor interest is growing. Part of that interest is being driven by Aurora’s stock performance over the last six months. Over the last six months Aurora’s stock has returned 58.51%. To top it off, the company now has a market cap of $11.69 billion. Further garnering investor interest.
Aurora is firing on all cylinders and now coming into its own. Aurora’s technology has matured to the point where the company will be operating fully autonomously between Dallas to Houston by the end of April 2025. Once they achieve this milestone, the era of autonomous trucking will truly begin.
This quarter Aurora retained their #1 ranking in the autonomous trucking category with a bullish outlook for the fourth quarter in a row. While Aurora is getting all the spotlight lately because of their FMCSA warning triangle exemption, Kodiak under the leadership of Don Burnette, continues to build a business with an eye on profitability.
Last quarter, Kodiak began fully autonomous operations in the West Texas Permian Basin with Atlas Energy. With the incoming Trump administration, deploying autonomous trucks in the oil and natural gas industries will become a growth market as President-elect Trump wants to unleash America’s energy dominance. Factor this in with Kodiak’s on-road and defense businesses and you have a very exciting, lucrative business.
Last quarter we visited Kodiak and met with management to get an update on the current state of their business. As part of our meeting we took a ride in the Kodiak truck—a ride that took us on both surface streets and highways.
The technical progress that Kodiak CTO Andreas Wendel and his team continue to make are impressive. Technical developments, a fully autonomous launch and a business that is poised to accelerate under the incoming administration earned Kodiak the #1 ranking in autonomous trucking category along with Aurora for the fourth quarter in a row.
Torc, an independent subsidiary of Daimler Truck retained their #2 ranking in the autonomous trucking category with a neutral ranking this quarter. Being an independent subsidiary of Daimler Truck has its pluses, but it also has its minuses.
The biggest plus is access to the dual redundant Freightliner Cascadia autonomous ready truck, the biggest minus is investor concentration. We have concerns as it relates to Daimler Truck’s long-term capital plans for Torc as they are not well known. If Torc were to tap the capital markets when they open and raise outside capital, we would view the business in a more positive light, as the current investor risk would be diminished.
As we have seen with both Cruise and Argo AI, having one or two major OEM investors has not proven to be a long-term sustainable option as both businesses have since shut down. For better or worse the shutdown of both Cruise and Argo AI has only strengthened Waymo.
There are shutdowns and then there are ousters. There are times when a founder is ousted from his or her company and the board eventually brings him or her back and then there are times where that founder goes on to found a new company with a new mindset, new funding and a new board.
Sometimes those founders look back on the lessons learned and the previous approach and approach the new business with a different attitude and vision. Sometimes they take into account what worked, what didn’t work and the best ways to utilize the latest technologies to build and scale a business.
Sometimes those founders’ new businesses go on to become bigger than the previous business. Sometimes the previous business acquires the founder’s new business and reinstalls them as CEO. Then there are times when history is not yet written and this is where we are with Xiaodi Hou and the founding of Bot Auto.
Dr. Hou founded Bot Auto in July 2023 and has since made incredible technical progress while surrounding himself with a strong bench of executive talent in Robert Brown, Paul Lam and Bart Teeter. We visited with Dr. Hou and Bot’s management team last quarter and came away impressed.
During our visit we rode in one of Bot Auto’s autonomous trucks in a ride that lasted a little over an hour as we traversed city streets, surface streets and the highway all without any interventions. This quarter Bot Auto joined the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucking category at #3 with a positive outlook.
Also joining the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucking category this quarter is Plus with a #4 ranking and a positive outlook. Plus’ partnership with Traton is one of the defining factors that sets them apart from their competitors.
Rounding out the autonomous trucking category, Stack AV dropped to #5 with a neutral outlook. While Waabi dropped to #6, with a neutral outlook as both Bot Auto and Plus were added to the autonomous trucking category.
Stack AV is an interesting company to us as they have strong technical and policy teams with deep pockets backing them—Softbank. But the lack of insights shared with the market makes it extremely difficult to properly analyze the company.
Shifting gears to the autonomous vehicle market, Waymo continues to dominate the market and as a result has maintained their #1 ranking in the autonomous vehicles category with a bullish outlook for the fourth quarter in a row. Coming in at #2 this quarter is Zoox. This quarter we upgraded Zoox to a positive outlook from neutral as all signs point to the company beginning commercial service in Las Vegas this year.
Wayve was upgraded to #3, while maintaining their bullish outlook followed by May Mobility who has been upgraded to #4, while maintaining a positive outlook as Cruise was removed from the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD this quarter.
The other major changes this quarter were Forterra’s upgrade to #1 along with Kodiak in the Defense-Ground Autonomous Vehicles category. Overland AI was upgraded to #2 as a result of Forterra’s upgrade. Overland AI has maintained their positive outlook.
The Future is Bright. The Future is Autonomous.
Until next quarter.
The next AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD update is scheduled for April 20, 2025
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Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group that is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American people.
The Golden Age of Travel
During his Senate Conformation hearing, Congressman Duffy spoke about ushering in the golden age of travel.
Together with President Trump, this committee and the entire DOT team, we will usher in a golden age of travel.
– Congressman Duffy, Senate Confirmation Hearing, January 15, 2024
To truly usher in the golden age of travel, the United States needs a national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks weighing over 10,001 pounds. Autonomous trucks will deliver goods, lower inflation, spur job growth and create new segments of the logistics markets.
When goods can be delivered efficiently in a cost-effective manner, consumers will have more money in their pockets. The economic savings that autonomous trucks will be able to unlock, could be recycled back into the economy.
Save on the cost of goods and groceries, go on a vacation. Autonomous vehicles will take us on vacations, but only if they can travel over state lines. This is the golden age of travel—one where a family does not have to worry about skipping on a meal to save for a vacation because of inflation.
Autonomous trucks will reduce inflation, autonomous vehicles will create family memories. Autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks benefit Main Street USA through lower inflation and increased mobility. When main street wins, the U.S. economy wins.
To unleash the full economic potential of autonomy, it is vitally important that a national autonomous vehicle framework including trucks weighing over 10,001 pounds is passed and signed into law by President Trump. Without trucks, the American economy would come to a grinding halt. Why not prepare for economic resilience today, instead of tomorrow? China is actively preparing, will America?
There is hope. In response to a question from Senator Blackburn, Congressman Duffy stated the following during his confirmation hearing:
We need clear rules that allow innovators to stay in America and develop products that are going to advance autonomous vehicles. Without clear rules or with a patchwork of rules state by state, I think we put ourselves behind those countries that allow for innovators to expand and grow. If I am confirmed, I want to work on rules that make sure there is clarity for innovators.
– Congressman Duffy, Senate Confirmation Hearing for Transportation Secretary, January 15, 2024
Without clear rules, China wins. Senator Rubio, Nominee for Secretary of State understands the risk that China poses to America. During his Senate conformation hearing on January 15th, Senator Rubio stated the following:
If we stay on the road we’re on right now, in less than 10 years virtually everything that matters to us in life will depend on whether China will allow us to have it or not — everything from the blood pressure medicine we take to what movies we get to watch.
– Senator Rubio, Senate Confirmation Hearing for Secretary of State, January 15, 2024
This statement clearly demonstrates that Senator Rubio understands the issue and the economic threat that China poses to America. With no national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks weighing over 10,001 pounds, China could surpass America and control the development of autonomous vehicles and trucks and export them to the world.
If China succeeds in incubating and developing autonomy, they will export it to the world for political and economic gain. Their economy is in shambles and exporting their way out of it is one possible way to try and correct their economic problems.
Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary nominee understands economics and policy and during his Senate confirmation hearing on January 16th, Mr. Bessent said the following:
China is the most unbalanced economy in the world. They are in a severe recession and depression and they are attempting to export their way out of that.
– Scott Bessent, Senate Confirmation Hearing for Treasury Secretary, January 15, 2024
Three different hearings and one common denominator—America. The economic threat posed by China is real. The incoming-Trump administration has the opportunity to change the status quo and ensure that America leads on autonomy and that Congressman Duffy’s vision of ushering in the golden age of travel becomes a reality.
Without a national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks weighing over 10,001 pounds, the golden age of travel will unfortunately not become a reality in America. It will be in China, though.
Our take: The time to act is now. If we do not act now, history will unfortunately once again repeat itself and America will continue to be reliant on China. This time it is different as China would have the ability to spy in plain sight. Do you want to be spied on?
Piquing Our Interest
San Francisco Has Failed to Ban Autonomous Vehicles On January 17th, California’s 1st District Court of Appeal unanimously denied the City of San Francisco’s legal challenge against the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to overturn Waymo’s ability to operate a paid service in the city.
Fake Narratives are Slowing Down the Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles There are always two sides to a story and sometimes there are more depending on what the issue is when it comes to politics. Autonomous vehicles have become a political issue because of special interests. In a recent op-ed, Steven Greenhut argues: “Laws requiring a “driver” in driverless cars make as much sense as requiring a horse to be yoked to the front of an automobile, just in case.” Mr. Greenhut is correct. It’s time for a national autonomous vehicle framework that enables the autonomy economy.
The Emerging Battle Between the U.S. and China Over the Future of Autonomous Vehicles China wants to export autonomy to the world and U.S. politicians do not want to see that happen. A battle is brewing globally over which country will ultimately control the future of the autonomy economy.
Pony AI Receives Permission for Autonomous Truck Platooning In another sign that China is ramping up autonomous technology efforts, the Chinese government has granted Pony AI permission to test autonomous trucking platoons on public roads.
Pony AI Has Started Testing Robotaxis on Beijing Highways Pony AI keeps racking up approvals from the Chinese government. On January 14th, the company was granted permission to test autonomous vehicles on Beijing’s highways with no safety driver.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Building The Autonomy Economy
This week in Washington, D.C., The Council for Economic Resilience hosted an evening for leaders in the autonomous vehicle and truck industries with very special guest Secretary Chao. At the event, Secretary Chao shared remarks about autonomous vehicles, trucks and the positive impact that they will have on the U.S. economy.
Our take: The Future is Bright. The Future is Autonomous. The Future is The Autonomy Economy.
SpaceX Continues to Change the Game, Autonomously
For the second time in four months, “Mechazilla” has caught the Super Heavy booster fully autonomously. Roaring back to earth at speeds over 7,000 MPH fully autonomously, the Super Heavy Booster and Mechazilla are making history and changing the economics of space.
SpaceX will open space exploration for mankind because of autonomous technologies. Without autonomy, SpaceX would not be able to achieve this massive feat. When space opens, the space economy opens. When it opens, it will take off because of autonomy.
Autonomy is unlocking what we once thought was impossible.
Our take: We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.” – Aristotle
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of January 13th, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 4.09%, the S&P 500 returned 2.91% and the NASDAQ 100 returned 2.85%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 1.18% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 1.24%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has declined 3.45%
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Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
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Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
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Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
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A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
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