President-elect Trump Signals Support for The Autonomy Economy
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 1.93%, President-elect Trump signaled his support for the autonomy economy, Deepwater Asset Management suggested that Waymo could achieve an $850 billion dollar valuation by 2030 and Uber continues to sell-off on Tesla robotaxi fears.
Since the election and now with President-elect Trump signaling his support for the autonomy economy, Tesla’s stock has taken off like a SpaceX rocket. Over the last month, Tesla’s stock has returned 65.02%, while Uber’s stock has declined 10.42%.
The Uber sell-off has been partly driven by fears over Tesla’s robotaxi, and this week the sell-off further accelerated on the news of a potential federal autonomous vehicle framework. Additionally, long-time Uber investor and bull, Brad Gerstner of Altimeter Capital went on CNBC and told the world that he sold his entire Uber stake and invested it in Tesla.
Another catalyst to the downside. As Benjamin Graham once said; “the market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term”. Today, the market is clearly voting for Tesla’s robotaxi, tomorrow will it correct itself? That is yet to be determined, but what has been determined is that the market is clearly bullish on autonomy.
When markets and regulations align, great things happen. Over the next 14 months, we will get a sense of just how closely markets and regulations will align. The clock starts on January 20, 2025 at 12:01pm.
Tesla, Uber and Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
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What’s Moving the Markets
President-elect Trump Signals Support for The Autonomy Economy
This week, Bloomberg reported that President-elect Trump is planning to make a federal autonomous vehicle framework a priority for the Department of Transportation. A federal autonomous vehicle framework would give investors regulatory certainty leading to accelerated investments in autonomy.
Additionally, it would give the companies developing autonomous vehicles without steering wheels or pedals certainty that they have a clear path to commercialization. Currently, companies are limited to 2,500 autonomous vehicles per year with no manual controls with a granted exemption, unless they go down the slippery slope of self-certifying.
A framework would eliminate the need for exemptions and self-certification. It would give both investors and developers the one thing they want the most—regulatory certainty.
The companies want clarity on vehicles with no pedals and no steering wheel. There could be a fight over this, but if a federal framework is implemented, it could usher in the autonomy economy.
– Grayson Brulte, Founder & CEO, The Road to Autonomy as told to Bloomberg
When a federal framework is implemented, investment dollars will flow and autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks will scale in America. America is at a cross-roads when it comes to autonomy. It’s either going full steam ahead or once again becoming reliant on China.
China controls the electric vehicle supply-chain and ecosystem, and they want to control the autonomous vehicle supply-chain and ecosystem. China wants to export autonomy to the world, including the United States. They want America to fail so they can control the emerging autonomy economy.
Support from President-elect Trump along with a federal framework would ensure that America develops and prospers from the autonomy economy. China’s strong push to dominate autonomous vehicles is being bolstered by significant government support. We, unfortunately, do not have that support here in America, yet.
Soon, we could have that support. If we do not get the support we need, America will once again become dependent on China for a new emerging technology. Let’s not let history repeat itself once again. Let’s allow autonomy to scale in America. When we do, America will usher in the autonomy economy.
Our take: We have 14 months give or take to get a federal autonomous vehicle framework in place. Now is the time to act. Now is the time to put our differences aside and come together for the benefit of the American public and the U.S. economy.
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicle category.
Tesla is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
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Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group that is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American people.
Waymo, an $850 Billion Dollar Valuation by 2030?
Could Waymo be on the road to a spin-out at an $850 billion dollar valuation in a little over five years? Deepwater Asset Management analyst Gene Munster thinks it’s a very plausible scenario.
Today, Waymo alone is too small for Alphabet investors to care about. However, the management team is sharing more about their rapid progress, plans to expand operations, and has raised additional outside capital. I’ve modeled the business and found it to be surprisingly attractive. I believe Alphabet will spin out Waymo in the next 2-4 years, with a potential valuation of $350B to $850B by 2030, which could add between 12-28% to GOOG’s current market cap, depending on Alphabet’s ownership percentage.
– Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management
A lot can change and will change in five years. But an $850 billion valuation for Waymo seems very lofty to us given the overall current size of the robotaxi market. Over the next five years, we fully expect Tesla to ship the Cybercab and for GM to launch a two-pronged autonomy business—personally owned autonomous vehicles and robotaxis, both powered by Cruise.
The Cybercab will be a personally owned autonomous vehicle, GM will have a personally owned autonomous vehicle and several other OEMs will have them as well, perhaps powered by Wayve or Nuro.
With personally owned autonomous vehicles entering the market, how will Waymo respond? Will Waymo look to license the Waymo driver to an OEM who wants to build personally owned autonomous vehicles? If they do, what impact will this have on the development of their core robotaxi business?
Then there are the lingering rumors of DeepMind developing a version of the Waymo driver without LiDAR. Apparently the DeepMind and core-Waymo teams are not communicating openly. What impact will this have on Waymo if there is to be a major breakthrough or a spin-out?
Then there is the way Waymo is currently structured, we do not see a clear path to a spin-out at this time unless Waymo decides to potentially re-enter autonomous trucking. Could Waymo spin-up and then spin-out their autonomous trucking business? Would Daimler Truck be willing to buy and merge it with Torc?
Or could PACCAR come out of left field and shock the market by making an acquisition? Anything is possible and we do believe that at some point, Waymo will re-explore and possibly re-enter the autonomous trucking sector. Could Lee White be tapped to run Waymo Via if they spin it up and spin it out?
Anything is possible, and what is very obvious is that most analysts fail to comprehend that the autonomy market is both vast and small at the same time. There are a lot of intricacies in autonomy that most analysts fail to grasp and understand. When valuing an autonomous vehicle or truck company, one must take into account the overall market, not just the numbers.
That includes the investors, developers, executives and partners. Autonomy is an ecosystem and it must be viewed just as that. Autonomy is not a winner take all or most market, it’s a market that will evolve in a similar fashion to cloud computing or operation system markets.
There will be a handful of players that will ultimately have the greatest marketshare. Then there will be the specialists that focus on niches. And let us not forget that there are riches in niches.
While Waymo is the clear leader today, that does not necessarily mean that they will always be the leader as this is a rapidly changing market.
Our take: We are still in inning one of autonomy. A lot is going to change over the next five years. There will be winners and there will be losers. These are all signs of a healthy market.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook, Cruise is currently ranked #2 with a positive outlook and Wayve is currently ranked #4 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Torc is currently ranked #2 with a neutral outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucks category.
Cruise parent GM, Daimler Truck, Tesla and Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies
Piquing Our Interest
Waymo Usage in San Francisco Skyrockets Both Locals and tourists alike continue to warmly embrace autonomous vehicles as the number of rides Waymo has provided in San Francisco has grown from 77,000 a month in January to 312,000 a month in August according to CPUC data.
Uber is in Talks to Invest in the Pony AI IPO Another autonomy IPO, another pending Uber investment. Bloomberg is reporting that Uber is seeking to buy more than $10 million of shares in Pony AI’s IPO.
Uber Sells off on Tesla Robotaxi Fears Uber’s stock is selling off because of fears over Tesla’s robotaxi. Are these fears justified or overblown? Al Root of Barron’s thinks so and he makes the case for why investors might want to reconsider.
Baidu Robotaxi Rides in China Grew 20% in Q3 2024 Baidu’s robotaxi rides in China grew 20% to 988,000 in Q3 2024. Fully autonomous rides (no safety driver) accounted for 691,000 +/- rides.
Baidu Slashes Price of Apollo RT6 Self-Driving Cars Baidu has slashed the price of their Apollo RT6 Self-Driving Cars to sub-$35k. Baidu is clearly aiming to compete with Tesla in the Chinese market.
Nuro Dramatically Expands Autonomous Vehicle Testing Nuro has expanded their testing ODD by 83% in Mountain View and Palo Alto, while increasing their testing presence in Houston by 70%.
Volvo Autonomous Solutions Is Preparing to Scale Autonomous Trucks Volvo is putting the pieces in place to scale a hub-to-hub autonomous truck carrier business in Texas.
Michigan Department of Transportation Proposes Autonomous Vehicle Corridor The Michigan Department of Transportation has proposed a 40-mile autonomous vehicle corridor between Ann Arbor and Detroit.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
Building Trust, One Post at a Time
As Waymo continues to expand, posts on social media about riders’ experiences are picking up and drawing more attention. The more attention these posts draw, the faster autonomy will scale, as these posts are vital for developing public trust of autonomous vehicles.
But unfortunately we are beginning to see what happened during the Presidential election happen in autonomy. A divide between reality and narrative is being formed. During the Presidential election, X and Polymarket told us one thing, while the media was telling us another.
As we all know, X and Polymarket were correct, the media and most of the polls were wrong. A very similar scenario is now occurring in autonomy. X is showing us happy riders and happy customers, the media is showing us doom and gloom. The narrative that the media tries to control is about to fail once again as consumers overwhelmingly love riding in autonomous vehicles.
Our take: It has become clearly evident that X has the pulse on society, not the media. As autonomy scales, it’s vitally important to ensure that content from riders continues to flow freely.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Transportation Secretary Nominee Fmr. Congressman Duffy on Autonomous Vehicles
During a 2018 The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on the Future of Insurance hearing, Congressman Duffy demonstrated his support for autonomous vehicles. Now he is the nominee for Transportation Secretary.
Our take: The Road to Autonomy fully supports Congressman Duffy’s nomination for Secretary of Transportation. We are very much looking forward to working with Congressman Duffy and the department to ensure that autonomous vehicles can scale in America. Now is the time to usher in the autonomy economy.
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of November 18th, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 1.93%, the S&P 500 returned 1.68% and the NASDAQ 100 returned 1.87%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.25% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.06%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 20.97%
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Subscribe to This Week in The Autonomy Economy™
A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
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