Waymo Launches in Los Angeles
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop Insurance, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 2.72%, Waymo opened service to everyone in LA, The Road to Autonomy team hit the road and met with Bot Auto in Houston and Pony AI is seeking a $4.5 billion dollar valuation for their U.S. IPO.
With LA now open to the public, we are fully expecting Austin to open to the public in Q1 2025, along with Atlanta by late Q2/early Q3 2025. As we look to 2025, we are expecting Waymo to announce three new cities with Miami being one of those new cities.
As Waymo scales to multiple markets, one of the things to keep your eyes on is the size of the fleet and the vehicles that Waymo is using in that market. The Hyundai IONIQ 5s are not expected to come online for the public until mid-2026. Which raises the question, does Waymo currently have enough Jaguar I-PACEs to scale into mid-2026 without diminishing the quality of the service?
Vehicle availability could potentially slow down Waymo until they are able to ramp up their IONIQ 5 fleet. If there is indeed a vehicle shortage, this opens the door for Cruise to once again become a formidable competitor. Only time will tell, but we will be watching the roll-out closely and monitoring the wait-times city-by-city.
This week we headed down to Houston, met with the Bot Auto team and took a ride in one of their autonomous trucks. As we were preparing for our meetings we kept asking ourselves, why Houston? We looked at the data and were still perplexed as to why Houston.
Even with 74.4 million square feet of industrial/warehouse space and millions more in development, we still had questions. When we visited, we understood. The westside of Houston is a never-ending sea of warehouses and logistics parks. With Bot Auto’s business model of being the carrier, we fully understood why once we set foot on the ground.
Houston has the opportunity to emerge as a major autonomous trucking hub as the I-10 runs right through the city. Bot Auto just might be onto something. It’s not just Bot Auto, Cruise is also preparing to launch fully autonomous operations in the city sometime next year.
We caught a glimpse of Cruise testing one of their autonomous vehicles in the city and noticed a modified sensor suite. Space City just might become the Autonomy City as Nuro also has a presence in the city.
Over in the public markets, Pony AI’s long and windy road to an IPO finally appears to be coming to an end as the company prepares for an IPO next week. Pony AI is looking to raise $180 million at a $4.5 billion dollar valuation.
We will be watching the Pony AI IPO, and on next week’s Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk will break it down along with the President-elect Trump’s picks for key transportation positions in his administration.
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What’s Moving the Markets
Waymo Launches in Los Angeles
The City of Angels is now The City of Waymo. On November 12th, Waymo officially opened their Waymo One service to everyone in LA. You can now order a Waymo after a Lakers game and take it home to Brentwood.
However, the service is currently only available in an 80 square-mile region with a few (and to us) very important caveats. If you live north of Sunset, you cannot get dropped-off or picked up at your residence, and if you want to skip town and hop on a flight to Cabo, you can’t do that either, yet.
Despite the limitations of the service area and a lack of freeways at the moment, a lot of value is still being created for riders in LA. As Waymo expands in LA, we would like to see the following:
- Expand service north of Sunset with the ultimate goal of expanding to the Valley. Perhaps start with Coldwater Canyon?
- As part of the Valley expansion, add highways with the Santa Monica Freeway (I-10) and the 405 being the primary highways to begin service.
- Negotiate a deal with Los Angeles World Airports (LAWA) that allows Waymo access to the airport with a carveout that does not require the service to use the horrible LAXit pickup area.
If and when our suggestions come to fruition, Waymo becomes a true competitor to Uber in the LA market. Then overtime, we will be watching to see how much Waymo eats into Uber’s LA marketshare. If it gets big enough, do the Uber shorts grow?
Our take: Waymo is the clear leader in robotaxis. LA will become a defining market for Waymo and before you know it, Waymo will be ingrained in the culture of the city.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
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The Emergence of Bot Auto
This week we hit the road and headed to Houston, Texas to meet with Bot Auto and check-in on the progress they are making in developing their autonomous trucking fleet. As part of our series of meetings, we had an opportunity to ride in one of their autonomous trucks and we came away impressed.
During our ride, the autonomous truck successfully completed a dock-to-dock journey in Houston without any human intervention in a ride that lasted a little over an hour. The route took us on surface streets, frontage roads and the freeway. You can watch a short video of our ride from inside of the cab here.
The technical progress that Bot Auto has made in a little under a year is nothing short of astounding. If Bot Auto keeps up their technical development at this pace, they will emerge as one of the leaders in the autonomous trucking industry. Putting us at the precipice of the emergence of the “Big Three” in autonomous trucking: Aurora, Kodiak and Bot Auto.
We have been very fortunate to meet with all three executive teams and have rode in their autonomous trucks many times on different routes. Each one of the emerging “Big Three” has their own unique strengths and those strengths will become apparent as their businesses scale.
One of Bot Auto’s biggest strengths outside of the technology is their executive leadership team comprised of Xiaodi Hou, Lei Wang (ex-Facebook/Instagram), Paul Lam, John Verdon (ex-Waymo), Robert Brown, Brian Moore (ex-U.S. Treasury) and Bart Teeter (ex-Texas Highway Patrol).
In our series of meetings with the executive team we came to the conclusion that there is a sense of unity and we are in this together mentality. It is the team that make the biggest difference at the end of the day and the strength of the team is a common bond between the emerging “Big Three”. All three companies have executive leadership teams to take their companies to the next level—profitable autonomy.
Each one of the emerging “Big Three” are taking different approaches to developing their business models. Bot Auto is taking the approach of owning and operating the fleet themselves, instead of licensing it. Paul Lam, Chief Strategy Officer, Head of Finance painted us a picture that de-risks the potential financial pitfalls of owning and operating the fleet. We are confident in Mr. Lam’s ability to develop and implement a model that is not a drag on profitability.
We would be remiss if we did not highlight Robert Brown. Mr. Brown is an unsung hero in autonomy and one of the hardest working individuals in the industry. He is a strong strategic asset for Bot Auto, one that will play a significant role as Bot Auto emerges and scales up business operations.
If you are interested in learning more about Bot Auto, we would recommend the following podcast:
- From TuSimple to Bot Auto: Xiaodi Hou’s New Plan for Profitable Autonomous Trucking, A Conversation with Xiaodi Hou, Founder & CEO, Bot Auto (October 22, 2024)
Our take: While it is still early days for Bot Auto, we came away from our meetings with management and our ride in one of their autonomous trucks impressed. Bot Auto has a very bright future.
Aurora is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucks category.
Kodiak is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in both the autonomous trucks and defense – ground autonomous vehicles categories.
Piquing Our Interest
Pony AI Seeks $4.5 Billion Valuation in US IPO In an IPO process that has been topsy-turvy, Pony AI is almost at the finish line. As Pony AI prepares to go public, the company is seeking a $4.5 billion valuation.
Softbank Logs $3.96 Billion Gain on Vision Fund For the company’s fiscal second quarter, Softbank reported a $3.96 billion gain on Vision Fund 1 driven by the growth of AI valuations.
Baidu Applies to Test Autonomous Vehicles at the Hong Kong Airport (HKG) Baidu has applied to HKG Airport Authority to test autonomous vehicles at the airport, with the goal of starting testing by the end of the year.
May Mobility Launches Fully Autonomous Operations in Ann Arbor, MI May Mobility has launched fully autonomous operations in Ann Arbor, MI. This the second city behind Sun City, AZ where May Mobility has fully autonomous operations.
Zoox Begins Testing the “Zoox Mobile” on Vegas Strip Zoox is ramping up testing, as the company is now testing the “Zoox Mobile” aka the Toaster on the Las Vegas Strip.
Washington, D.C. Considers Allowing Fully Autonomous Vehicles On Thursday, November 14th, the DC Council held a hearing on autonomous vehicles, as they consider allowing fully autonomous vehicles to test and operate in The District.
Caterpillar Deploys 100-Ton Autonomous Cat 777 at Virginia Quarry The growth of off-road autonomy continues amidst the backdrop of a growing labor shortage. To compensate for the lack of labor, companies are continually turning to autonomy. The CAT deployment at Luck Stone’s Bull Run plant in Chantilly, Virginia is just another example of how autonomy is shoring up the workforce.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
AVRide Launches Autonomous Deliveries in Austin
This week, AVRide launched autonomous robot deliveries in downtown Austin in partnership with Uber Eats.
Our take: There are a few things to watch as this scales. Does the food arrive warm? What is the time difference in delivery when compared to a human courier? Then there is the french fry test. Do the fries arrive crispy and not soggy?
Uber is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
Waymo Expands Fully Autonomous Driving South of San Francisco
Waymo continues to expand their fully autonomous driving ODD (operational design domain) down the San Francisco peninsula. It’s only a matter of time until you can grab a Waymo in Mountain View and take it up to San Francisco.
Our take: Waymo’s growth and expansion is nothing short of impressive. As Waymo continues to expand, we are keeping our eyes on the fleet size and average wait times. Wait times are now emerging as a key metric for Waymo.
Waymo parent Alphabet is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company
The Road to Autonomy Index® / Weekly Performance
The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.
For the week of November 11th, The Road to Autonomy Index declined 2.72%, the S&P 500 declined 2.08% and the NASDAQ 100 declined 3.42%. The Road to Autonomy Index underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.64% and outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.70%.
Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 19.04%
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Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
The Growth of Autonomous Mining & Construction Equipment
Bibhrajit Halder, Founder & CEO, Safe AI joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the growth of autonomous mining and construction.
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Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Latest Autonomy Markets Podcast
Waymo Launches in LA, Zoox Debuts in San Francisco and Bot Auto Emerges
Waymo has launched commercial service for the public this week in LA, Zoox began testing their bespoke vehicles in San Francisco and the autonomous trucking market is beginning to take shape.
Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
Listen on Apple Podcasts
Saturday, November 16, 2024
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A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction.
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