250k Paid Rides a Week and Then a Pivot?
This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in The Autonomy Economy, Waymo hit a major milestone with 250,000 paid rides per week and hinted at a potential move into personally-owned autonomous vehicles, a shift that could unlock a significant new revenue stream.
Uber deepened its autonomy strategy by partnering with Volkswagen to deploy autonomous ID. Buzz vehicles on its network, signaling growing competition in the robotaxi market.
As the autonomy economy continues to grow, California is taking notice and coming to the realization that they do not want to be left behind. On Friday, the California DMV initiated a formal rulemaking period that paves the way for autonomous trucks or as the CA DMV calls them “autonomous heavy-duty commercial motor vehicle” to operate on public roads in the state.
Currently, California is the only state that has a regulation in place explicitly prohibiting the operation of autonomous trucks with a gross vehicular weight rating of 10,001 pounds or greater from operating on public roads.
When this prohibition against autonomous trucking is removed, California’s economy will benefit as new jobs will be created. The jobs that would have gone to Texas, will now stay in California. This won’t be easy, as special interests are going to cause a ruckus and put up a political fight.
But at the end of the day, they will lose as regulators and politicians have realized the economic consequences that have come with banning a new emerging technology. Ban one technology, what’s to stop regulators from banning another one? Nothing.
The current regulatory environment around autonomous trucking in California has created economic uncertainty, primarily benefiting Texas’ economy. Politicians and regulators realize this and they are now clearly leaning in and embracing a technology that will only benefit the state’s economy, which is now the fourth largest economy in the world.
The Golden State is on the verge of becoming The Golden Autonomous State.
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What’s Moving the Markets
250k Paid Rides a Week and Then a Pivot?
On Alphabet’s Q1 2025 earnings call, Sundar Pichai announced that Waymo is now completing 250,000 paid rides per week, a major milestone. But the real headline came during the Q&A portion of the call, when Mark Mahaney of Evercore posed the following question:
Just briefly on Waymo, continues to rise aggressively, the numbers, Sundar. The long-term business model for Waymo, is there a reason to make a decision on that soon? Or have you already made the decision on whether this is a long-term licensing model, or you really want to run this as a standalone ride-sharing, delivery, autonomous vehicle business?
– Mark Mahaney, Evercore, Alphabet Q1 2025 Earnings Call, April 24, 2025
In which Mr. Pichai responded:
And, Mark, thanks. I think this is probably the first question I’ve got on an earnings call on Waymo, so thank you and I think it’s a sign of its progress.
Look, the thing that excites me is I think we’ve been laser-focused, and we’ll continue to be, on building the world’s best driver. And I think doing that well really gives you a variety of optionality and business models across geographies, et cetera.
It will also require a successful ecosystem of partners, and we can’t possibly do it all ourselves. And so I’m excited about the progress the teams have made through a variety of partnerships.
Obviously, a highlight of it is our partnership with Uber. We are very pleased with what we are already seeing in Austin in terms of rider satisfaction. We look forward to offering the first paid rides in Atlanta, via Uber, later this year.
But we are also building up a network of partners. For example, for maintaining fleets of vehicles and doing all the operations related to that, with the recently announced partnership with Moove in Phoenix and Miami. Obviously partnerships with OEMs. There are future optionality around personal ownership as well.
So, we are widely exploring, but at the same time, clearly staying focused and making progress, both in terms of safety, the driver experience, and progress on the business model and operationally scaling it up.
– Sundar Pichai, Alphabet Q1 2025 Earnings Call, April 24, 2025
The subtle comment “There are future optionality around personal ownership as well” really caught our attention. This line paired with a post on X announcing the milestone and referencing a “generalizable Waymo Driver” suggests something bigger may be underway at Waymo.
That language is significant. A generalizable Waymo Driver implies that the Waymo Driver now has the ability to operate in non-pre-mapped environments freeing the system from a rigid operational design domain (ODD) and opening the door to personal ownership.
Was this comment and cryptic post on X, a strategic move to counter the growing hype and investor excitement surrounding Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi launch in Austin this June or July? If so, it worked.
Major outlets, including The New York Post picked up on the comment and published the headline: “Google’s Waymo self-driving robotaxis could be put on sale for people looking to own the vehicle” on April 25th.
If Waymo were to move in this direction, the company would need two key partners: an OEM to manufacture the vehicle and a fleet management partner to operate it. Waymo was going to allow the vehicles to be placed on the Waymo One network when not in use by their owners. Could Hyundai and Moove potentially be those partners?
The bigger question becomes, would these personally-owned Waymo autonomous vehicles be locked into the Waymo One network, or could they also operate on Uber and Lyft?
That decision will alter the competitive balance in the robotaxi market. If Waymo decides to sell personally-owned autonomous vehicles and operate a ride-hailing network, it would mark a significant validation of Elon Musk’s strategy. Mr. Musk would be proven right and Uber and Lyft would not get the fragmentation that they so need to proper in a post-driver world.
These series of decisions would force Uber and Lyft to strike OEM/autonomous driving developer deals, which would be very good for both Wayve and Nuro as they are embracing a licensing model.
This would set the stage for a two-horse race between Waymo and Tesla until Wayve and Nuro enter the picture with OEM partners, leading to fragmentation in the market and declining robotaxi market shares for both Tesla and Waymo, unless they get too far ahead to be caught.
Our take: Waymo has a decision to make now that Mr. Pichai opened the door to personally-owned Waymos.
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicles category.
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Uber Accelerates AV Fragmentation Strategy with VW Deployment
Uber has one clear goal when it comes to autonomy, fragment the market and do it quickly. To succeed in an autonomous world, Uber needs a fragmented ecosystem with multiple robotaxi providers operating on its platform.
The recently announced partnership with Volkswagen to deploy “thousands” of autonomous ID. Buzz vehicles brings Uber a step closer to that goal. But there’s a catch, and it is a big one. VW’s autonomous driving technology simply isn’t ready for deployment yet, and based on feedback from testing in Austin, it might be a long time.
VW began testing 10 autonomous ID. Buzz vehicles in Austin back in July 2023. Nearly two years later, there’s been no commercial deployment. While VW has publicly targeted 2026 for a launch, a serious question remains; Why does it take three years of testing in a single city to stand up a robotaxi service?
Adding to the uncertainty, in recent months we have not seen any public sightings or photos of VW’s autonomous vehicles testing in Austin. How widespread is the testing?
Even more curious, the launch market for the VW/Uber partnership is not Austin, it’s Los Angeles. Despite years of testing in Austin, there’s no mention of launching there. Why?
Is it because the technology isn’t ready? If so, why make the announcement now? And even if VW does hit its 2026 launch target on Uber’s platform in LA, it will still require safety drivers, a far cry from full autonomy.
Testing is expected to begin later this year, with the first commercial launch expected in Los Angeles in 2026. During the initial testing and launch phases, ID. Buzz AD vehicles will have human operators onboard to help refine the technology and ensure safety.
– Uber / VW Investor Press Release, April 24, 2025
Launching a commercial robotaxi service with safety drivers feels circa-2020, a blast from the past that reinforces the narrative that VW does not have an advanced autonomous driving program.
While VW continues to struggle with autonomy, the deal, at least on paper, is good for Uber. It strengthens Uber’s market fragmentation strategy by adding another future provider to the platform.
The risk? Uber has to hope the technology advances quickly and that VW can remove the safety driver. Otherwise, the Uber autonomy experience risks being degraded by offering outdated robotaxis that still require in-vehicle human supervision, which isn’t autonomy, it’s assisted driving.
Simply put, this deal raises more questions than it answers.
Our take: If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.
Uber is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.
Piquing Our Interest
California Is on the Verge of Legalizing Autonomous Trucking California has opened a formal rulemaking process that clears the way for autonomous trucks to test and deploy commercial operations in the State.
Keep on Trucking Autonomously Colorado Brett Suma, CEO of Colorado-based Loadsmith, penned an op-ed in Colorado Politics urging legislators to vote against HB25-1122, a bill that would effectively ban autonomous trucks in the Centennial State.
1,300+ Deliveries a Day and Counting Avride is now delivering over 1,300 meals a day at The Ohio State University using a fleet of 112 autonomous delivery robots.
Wayve Expands to Japan Wayve is expanding to Japan with a new testing and development center in Yokohama, following its recently announced OEM partnership with Nissan.
Tesla is Testing FSD Supervised in Europe The Norwegian Road Authority has granted Tesla permission to test FSD Supervised vehicles on public roads in Norway.
Pony AI Unveils their 7th Generation Robotaxi At the Shanghai Auto Show, Pony.ai unveiled their 7th-generation robotaxi, built on the Toyota bZ4X platform. The robotaxi is expected to enter mass production later this year.
Are Robotaxis Becoming a Voting Issue? In a The New York Times opinion piece, Thomas L. Friedman described himself as a ‘Waymo Democrat’ while arguing that Waymo vehicles should be manufactured in America.”
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
Social Buzz
One Step Closer to a National Autonomous Vehicle Framework
This week, the U.S. Department of Transportation unveiled its Automated Vehicle Framework, bringing us one step closer to a national autonomous vehicle framework that prioritizes innovation and commercialization.
The announcement by Secretary Duffy signals to investors that regularity certainty is coming for both autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks. When investors have regularity certainty, an unprecedented amount of capital will flow into the sector.
Our take: A national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks over weighing over 10,001 pounds will help usher in the autonomy economy.
Tesla Launches FSD Supervised Robotaxi Service
With just 35 days until June, Tesla is taking a major step toward launching their FSD Unsupervised robotaxi service by rolling out an FSD Supervised version for employees in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area.
Our take: June or July? On Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk hedged his bet, suggesting that the robotaxi launch might slip to July. Regardless of the exact launch date, we are fully confident that Tesla will launch their highly anticipated FSD Unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin this summer.
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally-owned autonomous vehicles category.
Latest The Road to Autonomy Podcast
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Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X
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A weekly newsletter featuring insight and commentary on the autonomy economy™ and how the financial markets are viewing its emergence.
All price references and market forecasts are as of the date that this newsletter has been sent. The Road to Autonomy is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this newsletter. The information contained in this newsletter does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. The Road to Autonomy is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer or financial planner. The information in this newsletter is being provided solely as general information.
